KMIA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

80%

67%

54%

51%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 70.4¢Risks 70.40u

ICONNO 29.6¢Risks 29.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.60u · ICON −29.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	52.5%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	82.0%	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	31.8%	64.5%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	56.3%	74.8%	24.1%	—	49.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	56.6%	76.8%	60.1%	—	48.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	50.0%	65.6%	46.2%	—	39.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	65.5%	71.9%	50.8%	—	40.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	27.7%	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	54.2%	49.2%	54.2%	—	40.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	62.6%	73.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	32.2%	50.0%	55.2%	53.5%	—	36.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	72.9%	55.4%	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	62.7%	57.3%	53.7%	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	63.9%	53.8%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	67.8%	62.4%	44.2%	—	35.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	59.9%	68.3%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	65.1%	58.2%	36.9%	1.8%	31.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	55.3%	46.8%	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	56.5%	72.7%	46.7%	—	33.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	70.4%	70.4%	6.3%	—	28.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	54.6%	51.2%	43.0%	9.0%	32.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	44.0%	48.8%	42.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	40.1%	48.8%	50.0%	52.5%	27.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	41.0%	52.6%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	85.9°F	1.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	86.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	85.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	83.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	51%	83.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗