KMIA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 7.7¢Risks 3.85u

ICONNO 92.3¢Risks 46.15u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.15u · ICON −46.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:11+00:00	40.2%	5.9%	35.4%	30.7%	33.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	40.2%	5.9%	35.4%	30.7%	33.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	40.2%	5.9%	35.4%	30.7%	33.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	40.2%	5.9%	35.4%	30.7%	33.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:16+00:00	40.2%	5.9%	35.4%	30.7%	33.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	40.2%	5.9%	32.2%	30.7%	33.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	40.2%	5.9%	32.2%	30.7%	33.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	40.2%	5.9%	32.2%	30.7%	33.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	36.8%	5.9%	32.2%	30.7%	33.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	36.8%	5.9%	32.2%	30.7%	33.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	36.8%	5.9%	32.2%	30.7%	33.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	36.8%	5.9%	32.2%	30.7%	33.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	36.8%	5.9%	29.4%	30.7%	33.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	36.8%	5.9%	29.4%	30.7%	33.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	36.8%	5.9%	29.4%	30.7%	33.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	36.8%	5.9%	29.4%	30.7%	33.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	38.8%	5.9%	29.4%	30.7%	47.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	38.8%	5.9%	29.4%	30.7%	47.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:12+00:00	38.8%	5.9%	29.4%	30.7%	47.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	38.8%	5.9%	29.4%	30.7%	47.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	38.8%	5.9%	30.1%	25.4%	47.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	38.8%	5.9%	30.1%	25.4%	47.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	38.8%	5.9%	30.1%	25.4%	47.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	29.7%	5.9%	30.1%	25.4%	47.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	29.7%	5.9%	30.1%	25.4%	47.6%
2026-10-14T02:59:40+00:00	29.7%	5.9%	30.1%	25.4%	47.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	29.7%	5.9%	30.1%	25.4%	47.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	29.7%	5.9%	30.1%	25.4%	47.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:52+00:00	29.7%	5.9%	30.1%	25.4%	47.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	29.7%	5.9%	30.1%	25.4%	47.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:14+00:00	29.7%	5.9%	30.1%	25.4%	47.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	32.5%	5.9%	30.1%	25.4%	41.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	32.5%	5.9%	30.1%	25.4%	41.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:45+00:00	32.5%	5.9%	30.1%	25.4%	41.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	32.5%	5.9%	30.1%	25.4%	41.6%
2026-10-14T10:32:39+00:00	32.5%	5.9%	30.1%	18.4%	41.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:48+00:00	32.5%	8.2%	27.1%	18.4%	41.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	32.5%	8.2%	27.1%	18.4%	41.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	32.5%	8.2%	27.1%	18.4%	41.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	27.9%	8.2%	27.1%	18.4%	41.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	28.9%	8.2%	27.4%	18.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	28.9%	8.2%	27.4%	18.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	28.9%	8.2%	27.4%	18.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	28.9%	8.2%	27.4%	18.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	28.9%	8.2%	26.7%	18.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	28.9%	8.2%	26.7%	18.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	28.9%	8.2%	26.7%	18.5%	41.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	28.9%	8.2%	26.7%	17.7%	36.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	28.9%	8.2%	26.7%	17.7%	36.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	28.9%	8.2%	26.7%	17.7%	36.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	28.9%	8.2%	26.7%	17.7%	36.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	28.9%	8.2%	26.7%	17.7%	36.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	28.9%	8.2%	26.0%	17.7%	36.7%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	28.9%	8.2%	26.0%	17.7%	36.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	28.9%	8.2%	26.0%	17.7%	36.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	30.2%	8.2%	26.0%	17.7%	36.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	30.2%	8.2%	26.0%	17.7%	36.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	30.2%	8.2%	26.0%	17.7%	36.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	30.2%	8.2%	26.0%	17.7%	36.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	30.2%	8.2%	26.0%	17.7%	36.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	30.2%	8.2%	30.4%	17.7%	36.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	30.2%	8.2%	30.4%	17.7%	36.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:00	30.2%	8.2%	30.4%	17.7%	36.7%
2026-10-15T07:49:29+00:00	19.9%	8.2%	30.4%	11.9%	40.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	19.9%	8.2%	30.4%	11.9%	40.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	19.9%	8.2%	30.4%	11.9%	40.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	19.9%	8.2%	30.4%	11.9%	40.7%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	19.9%	8.2%	30.4%	11.9%	40.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:14+00:00	19.9%	8.2%	22.5%	11.9%	40.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	19.9%	2.6%	22.5%	11.9%	40.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:14+00:00	19.9%	2.6%	22.5%	11.9%	40.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	25.3%	2.6%	22.5%	11.9%	40.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	25.3%	2.6%	22.5%	12.0%	41.4%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	25.3%	2.6%	22.5%	12.0%	41.4%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	25.3%	2.6%	22.5%	12.0%	41.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	25.3%	2.6%	23.3%	12.0%	41.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	25.3%	2.6%	23.3%	12.0%	41.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	25.3%	2.6%	23.3%	12.0%	41.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	25.3%	2.6%	23.3%	12.0%	41.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	20.5%	2.6%	23.3%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	20.5%	2.6%	23.3%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	20.5%	2.6%	23.3%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	20.5%	2.6%	23.3%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	20.5%	2.6%	26.3%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	20.4%	2.6%	26.3%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	20.4%	2.6%	26.3%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	18.8%	2.6%	26.3%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	18.8%	2.6%	26.3%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	18.8%	2.6%	26.3%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	18.8%	2.6%	26.3%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	18.8%	2.6%	26.3%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	18.8%	2.6%	24.8%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:55+00:00	18.8%	2.6%	24.8%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	18.8%	2.6%	24.8%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	18.8%	2.6%	24.8%	15.4%	32.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	18.0%	2.6%	24.8%	15.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	18.0%	2.6%	24.8%	15.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	18.0%	2.6%	24.8%	15.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	18.0%	2.6%	24.8%	15.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	18.0%	0.9%	21.8%	15.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	18.0%	0.9%	21.8%	15.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	18.0%	0.9%	21.8%	15.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:20+00:00	18.0%	0.9%	21.8%	15.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	19.7%	0.9%	21.8%	16.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	19.7%	0.6%	21.8%	16.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	19.7%	0.6%	21.8%	16.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	19.7%	0.6%	21.8%	16.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	19.7%	0.6%	19.5%	16.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	19.7%	0.6%	19.5%	16.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	19.7%	0.6%	19.5%	16.4%	18.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	18.0%	0.6%	19.5%	16.4%	27.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	18.0%	0.6%	19.5%	16.4%	27.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	18.0%	0.6%	19.5%	16.4%	27.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	18.0%	0.6%	19.5%	16.4%	27.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	18.0%	0.6%	19.5%	7.5%	27.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:26+00:00	18.0%	0.6%	23.4%	7.5%	27.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:18+00:00	18.0%	0.6%	23.4%	7.5%	27.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	18.0%	0.6%	23.4%	7.5%	27.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	20.3%	0.6%	23.4%	7.5%	27.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	20.3%	0.6%	23.4%	7.5%	27.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	20.3%	0.6%	23.4%	7.5%	27.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	20.3%	0.6%	23.4%	7.5%	27.5%
2026-10-17T04:41:33+00:00	20.3%	0.6%	23.4%	7.5%	27.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	20.3%	0.6%	21.8%	7.5%	27.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	20.3%	0.6%	21.8%	7.5%	27.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	20.3%	0.6%	21.8%	7.5%	27.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:00	16.3%	0.6%	21.8%	8.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	16.3%	0.6%	21.8%	8.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	16.3%	0.6%	21.8%	8.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	16.3%	0.6%	21.8%	8.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	16.3%	0.6%	21.8%	8.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	16.3%	1.0%	19.5%	8.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	16.3%	1.0%	19.5%	8.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	16.3%	1.0%	19.5%	8.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	15.8%	1.0%	19.5%	8.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	15.8%	1.2%	19.5%	8.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:33+00:00	15.8%	1.5%	19.5%	8.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	15.8%	1.5%	19.5%	8.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	15.8%	1.5%	19.5%	8.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	15.8%	1.5%	12.4%	8.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	15.8%	1.5%	12.4%	8.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	15.8%	1.5%	12.4%	8.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	15.8%	1.5%	12.4%	8.6%	16.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	15.8%	1.5%	12.4%	8.6%	16.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	15.8%	1.5%	12.4%	8.6%	16.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	15.8%	1.5%	12.4%	8.6%	16.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	15.8%	1.5%	12.4%	8.6%	16.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	15.8%	1.4%	13.6%	8.6%	16.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	15.8%	1.4%	13.6%	8.6%	16.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	15.8%	1.4%	13.6%	8.6%	16.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	16.3%	1.4%	13.6%	8.6%	16.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	16.3%	1.4%	13.6%	8.6%	16.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	16.3%	1.4%	13.6%	8.6%	16.9%
2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00	16.3%	1.4%	13.6%	8.6%	16.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	16.3%	1.4%	15.7%	8.6%	16.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	16.3%	1.4%	15.7%	8.6%	16.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	16.3%	1.4%	15.7%	8.6%	16.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:35+00:00	16.3%	1.4%	15.7%	8.6%	16.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:06+00:00	13.4%	1.4%	15.7%	5.9%	5.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	13.4%	1.4%	15.7%	5.9%	5.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	13.4%	1.4%	15.7%	5.9%	5.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	13.4%	1.4%	15.7%	5.9%	5.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00	13.4%	1.4%	15.7%	5.9%	5.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	13.4%	2.9%	11.6%	5.9%	5.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	13.4%	2.9%	11.6%	5.9%	5.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	13.4%	2.9%	11.6%	5.9%	5.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	13.9%	2.9%	11.6%	5.9%	5.5%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	13.9%	2.9%	11.6%	5.9%	5.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	13.9%	2.9%	11.6%	5.9%	5.5%
2026-10-18T16:26:54+00:00	13.9%	2.9%	11.6%	5.9%	5.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	13.9%	2.9%	10.4%	5.9%	5.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	13.9%	2.9%	10.4%	5.9%	5.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	13.9%	2.9%	10.4%	5.9%	5.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	13.9%	2.9%	10.4%	5.9%	5.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	14.5%	2.9%	10.4%	8.6%	4.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	14.5%	2.9%	10.4%	8.6%	4.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	14.5%	2.9%	10.4%	8.6%	4.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	14.5%	2.9%	10.4%	8.6%	4.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	14.5%	2.9%	13.6%	8.6%	4.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	14.5%	2.9%	13.6%	8.6%	4.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	14.5%	2.9%	13.6%	8.6%	4.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	15.0%	2.9%	13.6%	8.6%	4.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	15.0%	2.9%	13.6%	8.6%	4.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	15.0%	2.9%	13.6%	8.6%	4.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	15.0%	2.9%	13.6%	8.6%	4.9%
2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00	15.0%	2.9%	13.6%	8.6%	4.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00	15.0%	2.9%	11.6%	8.6%	4.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	15.0%	2.9%	11.6%	8.6%	4.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	15.0%	2.9%	11.6%	8.6%	4.9%
2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00	14.3%	2.9%	11.6%	5.6%	1.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	14.3%	2.9%	11.6%	5.6%	1.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	14.3%	2.9%	11.6%	5.6%	1.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	14.3%	2.9%	11.6%	5.6%	1.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00	14.3%	2.9%	11.6%	5.6%	1.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:46+00:00	14.3%	2.9%	10.2%	5.6%	1.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	14%	85.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	86.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	85.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	83.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	85.7°F	2.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	1%	81.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261020-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Miami · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗