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KMIA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
14%
WN2
10%
HRES
6%
EPS
3%
ICON
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 7.7¢Risks 3.85u
VS
ICONNO 92.3¢Risks 46.15u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.15u · ICON −46.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.0% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.7% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 17.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 21.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 22.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 15.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.4% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 47.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 46.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 19.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 11.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 12.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 9.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.8% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.6% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.6% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.2% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.3% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-05 06:0010-12 06:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:0010.3%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:006.4%————7.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:005.6%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:0012.8%————24.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:006.8%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0014.3%————21.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0012.6%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0029.7%————23.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0032.0%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0024.4%————26.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0024.8%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0027.0%————21.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0031.6%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0033.0%————23.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0010.8%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0015.2%————20.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0011.2%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0014.2%————22.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0012.1%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0013.5%————20.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0014.7%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0015.6%————19.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0010.7%—4.4%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0012.3%————18.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0017.3%—14.1%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0017.7%————17.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0019.7%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0016.4%—18.9%——14.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0018.9%—11.8%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0018.0%—47.4%——13.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0013.6%—46.7%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0017.6%6.8%26.0%——13.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0015.0%—30.8%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0015.8%18.4%34.9%3.9%—14.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0010.1%—34.0%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0011.7%17.5%35.7%19.9%—12.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:008.9%—18.9%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:008.7%12.5%22.8%10.7%—7.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:008.9%—24.7%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:005.3%21.2%26.8%11.9%—7.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:006.8%3.4%3.9%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:004.5%12.5%10.1%12.5%—6.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:003.6%16.7%25.3%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:003.8%9.4%11.8%10.9%—4.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:003.9%22.9%11.2%——5.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:002.9%14.4%11.5%9.8%—4.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:003.2%14.3%9.2%——3.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:002.4%15.9%12.6%5.4%—3.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:001.9%10.5%15.2%——2.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:001.6%12.3%9.0%3.0%0.0%2.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.5%7.2%4.7%——1.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:001.1%7.0%14.9%4.2%—1.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.9%12.3%12.3%0.1%—1.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.9%5.1%4.2%2.7%0.1%1.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.7%2.5%3.3%2.3%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.6%1.7%2.8%3.0%3.5%0.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—1.5%3.0%———
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single14%85.3°F3.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast13%86.0°F3.1°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 210%85.8°F2.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES6%83.6°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble3%85.7°F2.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend2%85.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON1%81.4°F3.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261020-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Miami · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗