KMIA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

53%

46%

32%

22%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 38.4¢Risks 38.35u

HRESNO 61.7¢Risks 61.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +61.65u · HRES −61.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:39+00:00	61.2%	88.5%	63.1%	48.1%	51.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:48+00:00	61.2%	89.4%	57.2%	48.1%	51.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	61.2%	89.4%	57.2%	48.1%	51.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	61.2%	89.4%	57.2%	48.1%	51.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	59.1%	89.4%	57.2%	48.1%	51.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	59.1%	89.4%	57.1%	48.1%	52.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	59.1%	89.4%	57.1%	48.1%	52.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	59.1%	89.4%	57.1%	48.1%	52.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	59.1%	89.4%	57.1%	48.1%	52.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	59.1%	89.4%	64.0%	48.1%	52.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	59.1%	89.4%	64.0%	48.1%	52.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	59.1%	89.4%	64.0%	48.1%	52.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	49.3%	89.4%	64.0%	38.2%	64.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	49.3%	89.4%	64.0%	38.2%	64.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	49.3%	89.4%	64.0%	38.2%	64.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	49.3%	89.4%	64.0%	38.2%	64.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	49.3%	89.4%	64.0%	38.2%	64.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	49.3%	89.4%	59.5%	38.2%	64.9%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	49.3%	89.4%	59.5%	38.2%	64.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	49.3%	89.4%	59.5%	38.2%	64.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	51.4%	89.4%	59.5%	38.2%	64.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	51.4%	89.4%	59.5%	38.2%	64.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	51.4%	89.4%	59.5%	38.2%	64.9%
2026-10-15T04:02:04+00:00	51.4%	89.4%	59.5%	38.2%	64.9%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	51.4%	89.4%	59.5%	38.2%	64.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	51.4%	89.4%	62.5%	38.2%	64.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	51.4%	89.4%	62.5%	38.2%	64.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:35+00:00	51.4%	89.4%	62.5%	38.2%	64.9%
2026-10-15T07:49:29+00:00	50.0%	89.4%	62.5%	31.3%	71.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	50.0%	89.4%	62.5%	31.3%	71.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	50.0%	89.4%	62.5%	31.3%	71.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	50.0%	89.4%	62.5%	31.3%	71.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	50.0%	89.4%	62.5%	31.3%	71.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:14+00:00	50.0%	89.4%	62.6%	31.3%	71.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	50.0%	60.9%	62.6%	31.3%	71.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:14+00:00	50.0%	60.9%	62.6%	31.3%	71.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	60.2%	60.9%	62.6%	31.3%	71.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	60.2%	60.9%	62.6%	31.4%	71.3%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	60.2%	58.8%	62.6%	31.4%	71.3%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	60.2%	58.8%	62.6%	31.4%	71.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	60.2%	58.8%	60.1%	31.4%	71.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	60.2%	58.8%	60.1%	31.4%	71.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	60.2%	58.8%	60.1%	31.4%	71.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	60.2%	58.8%	60.1%	31.4%	71.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	50.0%	58.8%	60.1%	38.7%	58.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	50.0%	58.8%	60.1%	38.7%	58.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	50.0%	58.8%	60.1%	38.7%	58.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	50.0%	58.8%	60.1%	38.7%	58.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	50.0%	58.8%	56.8%	38.7%	58.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	50.0%	58.8%	56.8%	38.7%	58.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	50.0%	58.8%	56.8%	38.7%	58.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	46.3%	58.8%	56.8%	38.7%	58.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	46.3%	58.8%	56.8%	38.7%	58.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	46.3%	58.8%	56.8%	38.7%	58.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	46.3%	58.8%	56.8%	38.7%	58.9%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	46.3%	58.8%	56.8%	38.7%	58.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	46.3%	58.8%	56.8%	38.7%	58.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:55+00:00	46.3%	58.8%	56.8%	38.7%	58.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	46.3%	58.8%	56.8%	38.7%	58.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	46.3%	58.8%	56.8%	38.7%	58.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	48.4%	58.8%	56.8%	38.7%	58.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	48.4%	58.8%	56.8%	38.7%	58.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	48.4%	58.8%	56.8%	38.7%	58.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	48.4%	58.8%	56.8%	38.7%	58.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	48.4%	52.7%	59.6%	38.7%	58.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	48.4%	52.7%	59.6%	38.7%	58.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	48.4%	52.7%	59.6%	38.7%	58.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:20+00:00	48.4%	52.7%	59.6%	38.7%	58.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	54.8%	52.7%	59.6%	35.8%	58.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	54.8%	55.3%	59.6%	35.8%	58.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	54.8%	55.3%	59.6%	35.8%	58.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	54.8%	55.3%	59.6%	35.8%	58.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	54.8%	55.3%	59.6%	35.8%	58.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	54.8%	55.3%	59.6%	35.8%	58.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	54.8%	55.3%	59.6%	35.8%	58.6%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	50.0%	55.3%	59.6%	35.8%	72.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	50.0%	55.3%	59.6%	35.8%	72.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	50.0%	55.3%	59.6%	35.8%	72.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	50.0%	55.3%	59.6%	35.8%	72.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	50.0%	55.3%	59.6%	33.9%	72.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:00	50.0%	55.3%	63.3%	33.9%	72.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:18+00:00	50.0%	55.3%	63.3%	33.9%	72.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	50.0%	55.3%	63.3%	33.9%	72.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	50.8%	55.3%	63.3%	33.9%	72.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	50.8%	55.3%	63.3%	33.9%	72.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	50.8%	55.3%	63.3%	33.9%	72.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	50.8%	55.3%	63.3%	33.9%	72.5%
2026-10-17T04:41:33+00:00	50.8%	55.3%	63.3%	33.9%	72.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	50.8%	55.3%	62.4%	33.9%	72.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	50.8%	55.3%	62.4%	33.9%	72.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	50.8%	55.3%	62.4%	33.9%	72.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:00	49.1%	55.3%	62.4%	36.7%	71.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	49.1%	55.3%	62.4%	36.7%	71.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	49.1%	55.3%	62.4%	36.7%	71.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	49.1%	55.3%	62.4%	36.7%	71.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	49.1%	55.3%	62.4%	36.7%	71.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	49.1%	57.9%	56.4%	36.7%	71.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	49.1%	57.9%	56.4%	36.7%	71.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	49.1%	57.9%	56.4%	36.7%	71.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	48.3%	57.9%	56.4%	36.7%	71.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	48.3%	57.9%	56.4%	36.7%	71.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:33+00:00	48.3%	60.5%	56.4%	36.7%	71.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	48.3%	60.5%	56.4%	36.7%	71.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	48.3%	60.5%	56.4%	36.7%	71.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	48.3%	60.5%	61.6%	36.7%	71.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	48.3%	60.5%	61.6%	36.7%	71.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	48.3%	60.5%	61.6%	36.7%	71.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	46.5%	60.5%	61.6%	29.5%	68.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	46.5%	60.5%	61.6%	29.5%	68.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	46.5%	60.5%	61.6%	29.5%	68.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	46.5%	60.5%	61.6%	29.5%	68.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	46.5%	60.5%	61.6%	29.5%	68.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	46.5%	60.5%	55.3%	29.5%	68.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	46.5%	60.5%	55.3%	29.5%	68.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	46.5%	60.5%	55.3%	29.5%	68.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	48.3%	60.5%	55.3%	29.5%	68.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	48.3%	60.5%	55.3%	29.5%	68.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	48.3%	60.5%	55.3%	29.5%	68.9%
2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00	48.3%	60.5%	55.3%	29.5%	68.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	48.3%	60.5%	59.5%	29.5%	68.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	48.3%	60.5%	59.5%	29.5%	68.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	48.3%	60.5%	59.5%	29.5%	68.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:35+00:00	48.3%	60.5%	59.5%	29.5%	68.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:06+00:00	45.4%	60.5%	59.5%	36.9%	49.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	45.4%	60.5%	59.5%	36.9%	49.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	45.4%	60.5%	59.5%	36.9%	49.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	45.4%	60.5%	59.5%	36.9%	49.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00	45.4%	60.5%	59.5%	36.9%	49.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	45.4%	57.3%	53.5%	36.9%	49.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	45.4%	57.3%	53.5%	36.9%	49.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	45.4%	57.3%	53.5%	36.9%	49.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	43.5%	57.0%	53.5%	36.8%	49.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	43.5%	57.0%	53.5%	36.8%	49.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00	44.4%	57.0%	53.5%	31.1%	52.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00	44.4%	57.0%	50.0%	31.1%	52.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	44.4%	57.0%	50.0%	31.1%	52.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	44.4%	57.0%	50.0%	31.1%	52.0%
2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00	46.1%	57.0%	50.0%	22.5%	31.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	46.1%	57.0%	50.0%	22.5%	31.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	46.1%	57.0%	50.0%	22.5%	31.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	46.1%	57.0%	50.0%	22.5%	31.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00	46.1%	57.0%	50.0%	22.5%	31.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00	46.1%	54.2%	52.6%	22.5%	31.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	85.7°F	1.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	85.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	85.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	32%	83.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	82.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261021-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 86°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗