KMIA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

53%

46%

32%

22%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 38.4¢Risks 38.35u

HRESNO 61.7¢Risks 61.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +61.65u · HRES −61.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	48.9%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	32.4%	—	34.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	64.0%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	25.9%	—	35.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	55.1%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	41.0%	—	34.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	54.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	24.4%	63.3%	—	34.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	58.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	44.4%	48.6%	15.3%	28.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	43.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	52.9%	52.9%	35.0%	27.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	14.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	35.1%	27.7%	46.2%	27.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	51.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	39.0%	50.0%	40.5%	22.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	14.4%	39.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	57.5%	36.9%	33.8%	25.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	53.4%	45.7%	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	59.6%	40.5%	29.9%	22.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	48.2%	46.4%	—	21.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	56.4%	30.6%	21.6%	19.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	57.5%	49.0%	—	19.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	42.3%	48.0%	23.2%	19.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	55.0%	30.8%	—	16.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	44.9%	34.0%	18.3%	17.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	44.7%	54.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	35.1%	46.7%	16.9%	14.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	25.8%	46.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	85.7°F	1.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	85.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	85.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	32%	83.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	82.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261021-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 86°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗