KMIA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST14%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

28%

17%

15%

11%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 19.4¢Risks 9.70u

HRESNO 80.6¢Risks 40.30u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.30u · HRES −40.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	37.9%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	22.7%	—	24.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	52.4%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	16.8%	—	24.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	42.4%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	28.9%	—	23.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	41.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	15.1%	50.0%	—	22.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	45.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	31.1%	34.9%	8.5%	18.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	30.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	38.5%	38.5%	22.6%	16.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	7.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	22.2%	16.4%	31.6%	16.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	36.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	24.8%	34.5%	26.1%	12.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	7.0%	25.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	40.9%	22.5%	20.1%	13.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	36.6%	29.6%	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	42.2%	24.8%	16.7%	11.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	31.0%	29.4%	—	10.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	38.2%	16.6%	10.6%	9.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	38.8%	30.9%	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	24.7%	29.6%	11.1%	8.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	35.3%	15.8%	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	25.9%	17.6%	7.8%	7.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	25.3%	33.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	17.6%	26.4%	6.6%	5.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	11.2%	25.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	33%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	85.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	85.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	85.7°F	1.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	83.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	82.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261021-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Miami runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗