KMIA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 8.1¢Risks 4.05u

EPSNO 91.9¢Risks 45.95u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.95u · EPS −45.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	27.8%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	14.8%	—	16.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	40.6%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	10.1%	—	15.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	30.4%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	18.9%	—	14.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	29.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	8.5%	36.7%	—	13.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	32.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	19.9%	23.0%	4.2%	10.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	18.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	25.4%	25.4%	13.2%	9.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	3.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	12.5%	8.7%	19.5%	8.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	22.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	14.0%	21.2%	14.9%	5.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	3.0%	13.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	25.8%	12.0%	10.4%	6.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	22.0%	16.7%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	26.2%	13.1%	8.0%	5.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	17.2%	16.1%	—	4.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	22.3%	7.6%	4.3%	3.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	22.4%	16.5%	—	3.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	12.1%	15.3%	4.4%	3.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	19.0%	6.6%	—	2.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	12.3%	7.4%	2.6%	2.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	11.6%	16.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	7.0%	11.9%	2.0%	1.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	3.8%	11.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	15%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	85.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	85.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	6%	83.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	82.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	85.7°F	1.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261021-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Miami · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗