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KMIA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≤ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
32%
ICON
18%
AIFS
13%
WN2
5%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 16.2¢Risks 16.25u
VS
EPSNO 83.8¢Risks 83.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +83.75u · EPS −83.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 15.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00AIFS Single: 15.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00AIFS Single: 15.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00IFS HRES: 26.5% · 2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00IFS HRES: 26.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS HRES: 26.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00IFS HRES: 32.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00IFS HRES: 32.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 32.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 32.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS HRES: 32.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00IFS HRES: 32.2% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00IFS HRES: 32.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00IFS HRES: 32.2% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00ICON: 9.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:00ICON: 9.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00ICON: 9.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:0010-19 05:1710-19 09:0410-19 12:51
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T05:17:01+00:0015.1%0.1%6.9%26.5%9.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:0015.1%0.1%6.9%26.5%9.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:0015.1%0.1%6.9%26.5%9.6%
2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:0012.9%0.1%6.9%32.2%17.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:0012.9%0.1%6.9%32.2%17.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:0012.9%0.1%6.9%32.2%17.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:0012.9%0.1%6.9%32.2%17.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:0012.9%0.1%6.9%32.2%17.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:0012.9%0.3%4.7%32.2%17.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:31+00:0012.9%0.3%4.7%32.2%17.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:0012.9%0.3%4.7%32.2%17.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES32%82.4°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON18%83.8°F3.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single13%85.1°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast5%86.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 25%85.7°F3.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend2%85.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%85.7°F1.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 80°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261021-TMAX-LE80
Opened Oct 19 · 05:17 UTC

Original listing: Miami stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗