KMIA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≤ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 13:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

18%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 16.2¢Risks 16.25u

EPSNO 83.8¢Risks 83.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +83.75u · EPS −83.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	25.1%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	39.0%	—	36.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	13.4%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	44.4%	—	34.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	17.6%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	27.8%	—	34.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	17.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	43.9%	11.8%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	13.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	23.0%	19.9%	55.6%	37.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	23.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	16.1%	16.1%	29.7%	37.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	55.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	28.3%	35.8%	19.5%	35.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	—	15.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	23.6%	15.9%	22.4%	40.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	51.6%	22.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.1%	10.8%	23.8%	26.5%	35.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	12.3%	16.7%	—	91.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	9.0%	19.6%	28.4%	37.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	14.0%	15.0%	—	36.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	9.4%	25.9%	35.6%	38.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	8.4%	12.2%	—	37.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.2%	15.3%	12.1%	31.3%	36.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	8.4%	22.6%	—	39.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	12.3%	19.0%	34.9%	36.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	11.6%	7.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.3%	16.2%	9.9%	34.1%	37.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	22.3%	9.2%	88.8%	35.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	32%	82.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	83.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	85.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	85.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	85.7°F	1.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 80°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261021-TMAX-LE80
Opened Oct 19 · 05:17 UTC

Original listing: Miami stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗