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KMIA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
86%
ICON
72%
WN2
64%
AIFS
55%
HRES
34%
Consensus
71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 59.9¢Risks 59.90u
VS
HRESNO 40.1¢Risks 40.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.10u · HRES −40.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 59.1% · 2026-10-15T11:39:15+00:00AIFS Single: 59.1% · 2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00AIFS Single: 59.1% · 2026-10-15T13:10:14+00:00AIFS Single: 58.5% · 2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00AIFS Single: 59.7% · 2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00AIFS Single: 59.7% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00AIFS Single: 59.7% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00AIFS Single: 59.7% · 2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00AIFS Single: 59.7% · 2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00AIFS Single: 59.7% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00AIFS Single: 59.7% · 2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00AIFS Single: 54.9% · 2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.7% · 2026-10-15T11:39:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.2% · 2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.2% · 2026-10-15T13:10:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.2% · 2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.2% · 2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.5% · 2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.8% · 2026-10-15T11:39:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.8% · 2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.8% · 2026-10-15T13:10:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.8% · 2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.6% · 2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.6% · 2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.6% · 2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.8% · 2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.8% · 2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.8% · 2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.8% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.8% · 2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.8% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.8% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.8% · 2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.8% · 2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.8% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.8% · 2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.8% · 2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.8% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.8% · 2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.8% · 2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00IFS HRES: 28.5% · 2026-10-15T11:39:15+00:00IFS HRES: 28.5% · 2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00IFS HRES: 28.5% · 2026-10-15T13:10:14+00:00IFS HRES: 28.5% · 2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00IFS HRES: 28.7% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-15T11:39:15+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-15T13:10:14+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00ICON: 58.0% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00ICON: 72.4% · 2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00ICON: 72.4% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00ICON: 72.4% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00ICON: 72.4% · 2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00ICON: 72.4% · 2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00ICON: 72.4% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00ICON: 72.4% · 2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00ICON: 72.4% · 2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00ICON: 72.4% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00ICON: 72.4% · 2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00ICON: 72.4% · 2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:0010-15 11:3910-15 20:0610-16 03:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T11:39:15+00:0059.1%93.7%64.8%28.5%58.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:0059.1%88.2%64.8%28.5%58.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:14+00:0059.1%88.2%64.8%28.5%58.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:0058.5%88.2%64.8%28.5%58.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:0058.3%88.2%64.6%28.7%58.0%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:0058.3%85.5%64.6%28.7%58.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:0058.3%85.5%64.6%28.7%58.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:0058.3%85.5%66.8%28.7%58.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:0058.3%85.5%66.8%28.7%58.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:0058.3%85.5%66.8%28.7%58.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:0058.3%85.5%66.8%28.7%58.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:0059.7%85.5%66.8%34.3%72.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:0059.7%85.5%66.8%34.3%72.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:0059.7%85.5%66.8%34.3%72.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:0059.7%85.5%66.8%34.3%72.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:0059.7%85.5%63.8%34.3%72.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:0059.7%85.5%63.8%34.3%72.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:0059.7%85.5%63.8%34.3%72.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:0054.9%85.5%63.8%34.3%72.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:0054.9%85.5%63.8%34.3%72.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:0054.9%85.5%63.8%34.3%72.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:0054.9%85.5%63.8%34.3%72.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble86%86.3°F1.7°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON72%90.4°F9.9°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 264%86.3°F5.1°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
National Blend59%85.0°F2.2°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
AIFS Single55%85.2°F5.7°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
IFS HRES34%81.9°F6.4°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261022-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 85°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗