KMIA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

72%

64%

55%

34%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.9¢Risks 59.90u

HRESNO 40.1¢Risks 40.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.10u · HRES −40.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	43.9%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	54.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	83.9%	—	38.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	63.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	57.8%	—	37.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	56.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	33.0%	33.6%	—	36.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	39.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	59.1%	31.1%	24.1%	32.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	53.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	62.3%	68.3%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	53.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	55.3%	59.1%	37.2%	29.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	63.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	54.8%	41.3%	39.0%	23.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	23.7%	41.1%	—	22.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	53.3%	25.1%	42.5%	22.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	42.4%	30.3%	—	21.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	47.4%	22.1%	27.7%	22.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	63.2%	42.0%	—	19.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	29.7%	58.2%	11.0%	20.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	23.1%	37.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	41.3%	61.5%	17.1%	17.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	26.5%	44.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	86%	86.3°F	1.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	72%	90.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	64%	86.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	85.2°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	81.9°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261022-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 85°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗