KMIA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

20%

20%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.4¢Risks 7.20u

EPSNO 85.6¢Risks 42.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +42.80u · EPS −42.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:30+00:00	38.1%	40.7%	41.9%	14.9%	46.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	38.1%	40.7%	41.9%	14.9%	46.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	38.1%	40.7%	41.9%	14.9%	46.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	38.1%	40.7%	41.9%	14.9%	46.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	38.1%	40.7%	41.9%	14.9%	46.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:15+00:00	38.1%	40.7%	41.3%	14.9%	46.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	38.1%	24.6%	41.3%	14.9%	46.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:14+00:00	38.1%	24.6%	41.3%	14.9%	46.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:49+00:00	37.4%	24.6%	41.3%	14.9%	46.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:24+00:00	37.6%	24.6%	41.4%	15.2%	46.0%
2026-10-15T15:33:59+00:00	37.6%	24.0%	41.4%	15.2%	46.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	37.6%	24.0%	41.4%	15.2%	46.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	37.6%	24.0%	43.7%	15.2%	46.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	37.6%	24.0%	43.7%	15.2%	46.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	37.6%	24.0%	43.7%	15.2%	46.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	37.6%	24.0%	43.7%	15.2%	46.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	38.9%	24.0%	43.7%	19.1%	61.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	38.9%	24.0%	43.7%	19.1%	61.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	38.9%	24.0%	43.7%	19.1%	61.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	38.9%	24.0%	43.7%	19.1%	61.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:02+00:00	38.9%	24.0%	40.7%	19.1%	61.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	39.0%	24.0%	40.7%	19.2%	61.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	39.0%	24.0%	40.7%	19.2%	61.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:43+00:00	34.4%	24.0%	40.7%	19.2%	61.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	34.4%	24.0%	40.7%	19.2%	61.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	34.4%	24.0%	40.7%	19.2%	61.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	34.4%	24.0%	40.7%	19.2%	61.5%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	34.4%	24.0%	40.7%	19.2%	61.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	34.4%	24.0%	41.4%	19.2%	61.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:55+00:00	34.4%	24.0%	41.4%	19.2%	61.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	34.4%	24.0%	41.4%	19.2%	61.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	34.4%	24.0%	41.4%	19.2%	61.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	38.3%	24.0%	41.4%	19.2%	62.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	38.3%	24.0%	41.4%	19.2%	62.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	38.3%	24.0%	41.4%	19.2%	62.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	38.3%	24.0%	41.4%	19.2%	62.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:13+00:00	38.3%	8.8%	41.5%	19.2%	62.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	38.3%	8.8%	41.5%	19.2%	62.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	38.3%	8.8%	41.5%	19.2%	62.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:20+00:00	38.3%	8.8%	41.5%	19.2%	62.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	37.0%	8.8%	41.5%	13.8%	63.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00	37.0%	10.1%	41.5%	13.8%	63.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	37.0%	10.1%	41.5%	13.8%	63.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	37.0%	10.1%	41.5%	13.8%	63.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	37.0%	10.1%	39.9%	13.8%	63.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	37.0%	10.1%	39.9%	13.8%	63.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	37.0%	10.1%	39.9%	13.8%	63.2%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	29.6%	10.1%	39.9%	13.8%	57.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	29.6%	10.1%	39.9%	13.8%	57.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	29.6%	10.1%	39.9%	13.8%	57.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	29.6%	10.1%	39.9%	13.8%	57.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	29.6%	10.1%	39.9%	25.2%	57.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:00	29.6%	8.8%	37.4%	25.2%	57.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:18+00:00	29.6%	8.8%	37.4%	25.2%	57.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	29.6%	8.8%	37.4%	25.2%	57.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	30.9%	8.8%	37.4%	25.2%	57.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	30.9%	8.8%	37.4%	25.2%	57.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	30.9%	8.8%	37.4%	25.2%	57.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	30.9%	8.8%	37.4%	25.2%	57.8%
2026-10-17T04:41:33+00:00	30.9%	8.8%	37.4%	25.2%	57.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	30.9%	8.8%	39.0%	25.2%	57.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	30.9%	8.8%	39.0%	25.2%	57.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	30.9%	8.8%	39.0%	25.2%	57.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:00	30.0%	8.8%	39.0%	18.4%	52.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	30.0%	8.8%	39.0%	18.4%	52.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	30.0%	8.8%	39.0%	18.4%	52.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	30.0%	8.8%	39.0%	18.4%	52.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	30.0%	8.8%	39.0%	18.4%	52.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	30.0%	3.7%	34.9%	18.4%	52.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	30.0%	3.7%	34.9%	18.4%	52.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	30.0%	3.7%	34.9%	18.4%	52.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00	22.2%	3.7%	34.9%	18.4%	52.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	22.1%	3.7%	34.9%	18.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:33+00:00	22.1%	5.5%	34.9%	18.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	22.1%	5.5%	34.9%	18.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	22.1%	5.5%	34.9%	18.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	22.1%	5.5%	33.1%	18.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	22.1%	5.5%	33.1%	18.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	22.1%	5.5%	33.1%	18.5%	52.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	25.9%	5.5%	33.1%	22.4%	50.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	25.9%	5.5%	33.1%	22.4%	50.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	25.9%	5.5%	33.1%	22.4%	50.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	25.9%	5.5%	33.1%	22.4%	50.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	25.9%	5.5%	33.1%	22.4%	50.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	25.9%	5.5%	33.1%	22.4%	50.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	25.9%	5.5%	33.1%	22.4%	50.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	25.9%	5.5%	33.1%	22.4%	50.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	27.9%	5.5%	33.1%	22.4%	50.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	27.9%	5.5%	33.1%	22.4%	50.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	27.9%	5.5%	33.1%	22.4%	50.7%
2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00	27.9%	5.5%	33.1%	22.4%	50.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	27.9%	5.5%	34.0%	22.4%	50.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	27.9%	5.5%	34.0%	22.4%	50.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	27.9%	5.5%	34.0%	22.4%	50.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:35+00:00	27.9%	5.5%	34.0%	22.4%	50.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:06+00:00	22.9%	5.5%	34.0%	11.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	22.9%	5.5%	34.0%	11.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	22.9%	5.5%	34.0%	11.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	22.9%	5.5%	34.0%	11.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00	22.9%	5.5%	34.0%	11.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	22.9%	5.5%	26.0%	11.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	22.9%	5.5%	26.0%	11.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	22.9%	5.5%	26.0%	11.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	21.6%	5.5%	26.0%	11.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	21.6%	5.5%	26.0%	11.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	21.6%	7.5%	26.0%	11.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T16:26:54+00:00	21.6%	7.5%	26.0%	11.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	21.6%	7.5%	27.8%	11.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	21.6%	7.5%	27.8%	11.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	21.6%	7.5%	27.8%	11.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	21.6%	7.5%	27.8%	11.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	25.7%	7.5%	27.8%	14.0%	23.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	25.7%	7.5%	27.8%	14.0%	23.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	25.7%	7.5%	27.8%	14.0%	23.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	25.7%	7.5%	27.8%	14.0%	23.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	25.7%	7.5%	26.0%	14.0%	23.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	25.7%	7.5%	26.0%	14.0%	23.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	25.7%	7.5%	26.0%	14.0%	23.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	21.6%	7.5%	26.0%	14.0%	23.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	21.6%	7.5%	26.0%	14.0%	23.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	21.6%	7.5%	26.0%	14.0%	23.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	21.6%	7.5%	26.0%	14.0%	23.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00	21.6%	7.5%	26.0%	14.0%	23.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	21.6%	7.5%	21.1%	14.0%	23.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	21.6%	7.5%	21.1%	14.0%	23.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	21.6%	7.5%	21.1%	14.0%	23.0%
2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00	20.0%	7.5%	21.1%	10.1%	21.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	20.0%	7.5%	21.1%	10.1%	21.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	20.0%	7.5%	21.1%	10.1%	21.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	20.0%	7.5%	21.1%	10.1%	21.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00	20.0%	7.5%	21.1%	10.1%	21.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00	20.0%	7.7%	20.3%	10.1%	21.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	21%	84.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	84.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	83.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	19%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	81.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	85.0°F	1.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261022-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Miami runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗