KMIA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

20%

20%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.4¢Risks 7.20u

EPSNO 85.6¢Risks 42.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +42.80u · EPS −42.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	28.3%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	36.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	69.8%	—	22.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	44.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	38.4%	—	21.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	36.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	17.1%	17.6%	—	19.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	21.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	38.2%	15.3%	10.9%	16.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	32.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	40.6%	47.1%	29.1%	14.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	32.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	33.0%	36.5%	18.4%	13.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	40.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	31.6%	20.6%	18.9%	9.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	9.2%	20.1%	—	8.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	29.3%	9.7%	20.7%	8.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	20.1%	12.3%	—	7.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	23.4%	7.7%	10.5%	7.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	36.8%	19.0%	—	6.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	11.0%	31.4%	2.8%	6.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	7.4%	15.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	17.1%	33.0%	4.6%	4.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	8.4%	18.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	21%	84.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	84.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	83.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	19%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	81.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	85.0°F	1.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261022-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Miami runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗