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KMIA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
78%
ICON
67%
WN2
62%
AIFS
54%
HRES
40%
Consensus
67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 59.0¢Risks 59.00u
VS
HRESNO 41.0¢Risks 41.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.00u · HRES −41.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00AIFS Single: 58.3% · 2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-17T00:09:18+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00AIFS Single: 53.5% · 2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00AIFS Single: 53.5% · 2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00AIFS Single: 53.5% · 2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00AIFS Single: 53.5% · 2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.5% · 2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.5% · 2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.5% · 2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.5% · 2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.5% · 2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.5% · 2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.5% · 2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.5% · 2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.5% · 2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.5% · 2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.5% · 2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.5% · 2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-17T00:09:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 77.8% · 2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-17T00:09:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00IFS HRES: 27.3% · 2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00IFS HRES: 27.3% · 2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00IFS HRES: 27.3% · 2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00IFS HRES: 27.3% · 2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00IFS HRES: 27.3% · 2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00IFS HRES: 27.3% · 2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00IFS HRES: 27.3% · 2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00IFS HRES: 27.3% · 2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00IFS HRES: 27.3% · 2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00IFS HRES: 27.3% · 2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00IFS HRES: 27.3% · 2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00IFS HRES: 40.2% · 2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00IFS HRES: 40.2% · 2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:00IFS HRES: 40.2% · 2026-10-17T00:09:18+00:00IFS HRES: 40.2% · 2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00IFS HRES: 40.2% · 2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00IFS HRES: 40.2% · 2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00IFS HRES: 40.2% · 2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00IFS HRES: 40.2% · 2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00ICON: 48.0% · 2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-17T00:09:18+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:0010-16 14:1910-16 21:0710-17 03:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:0058.3%76.5%60.1%27.3%48.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:25+00:0058.3%76.5%60.1%27.3%48.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:0058.3%76.5%60.1%27.3%48.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:0058.3%76.5%60.1%27.3%48.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:0058.3%76.5%59.3%27.3%48.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:0058.3%76.5%59.3%27.3%48.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:0058.3%76.5%59.3%27.3%48.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:0054.2%76.5%59.3%27.3%67.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:0054.2%76.5%59.3%27.3%67.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:0054.2%76.5%59.3%27.3%67.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:0054.2%76.5%59.3%27.3%67.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:0054.2%76.5%59.3%40.2%67.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:27+00:0054.2%77.8%61.6%40.2%67.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:18+00:0054.2%77.8%61.6%40.2%67.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:0054.2%77.8%61.6%40.2%67.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:0053.5%77.8%61.6%40.2%67.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:0053.5%77.8%61.6%40.2%67.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:0053.5%77.8%61.6%40.2%67.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:0053.5%77.8%61.6%40.2%67.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble78%85.8°F1.7°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
ICON67%88.9°F9.9°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 262%86.0°F5.1°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
National Blend59%85.0°F2.2°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
AIFS Single54%85.0°F5.8°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
IFS HRES40%82.9°F6.5°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261023-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 85°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗