KMIA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

67%

62%

54%

40%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.0¢Risks 59.00u

HRESNO 41.0¢Risks 41.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.00u · HRES −41.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	80.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	70.2%	—	38.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	58.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	60.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	22.5%	—	34.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	50.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	27.3%	—	31.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	52.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	19.4%	49.3%	—	32.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	68.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	48.6%	50.7%	19.9%	29.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	40.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	57.3%	31.0%	36.4%	23.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	28.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	53.8%	33.0%	34.4%	21.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	23.5%	—	20.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	42.1%	26.8%	32.3%	21.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	13.9%	29.0%	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	16.8%	36.9%	8.7%	19.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	36.6%	41.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	23.4%	30.7%	34.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	28.7%	27.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	85.8°F	1.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	67%	88.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	86.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	85.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	82.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261023-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 85°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗