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KMIA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
70%
WN2
49%
AIFS
44%
EPS
28%
HRES
22%
Consensus
34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 45.8¢Risks 45.85u
VS
HRESNO 54.2¢Risks 54.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +54.15u · HRES −54.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 46.5% · 2026-10-17T04:41:33+00:00AIFS Single: 46.5% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00AIFS Single: 46.5% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00AIFS Single: 46.5% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00AIFS Single: 45.6% · 2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:00AIFS Single: 45.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00AIFS Single: 45.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00AIFS Single: 45.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 45.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00AIFS Single: 45.6% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00AIFS Single: 45.6% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 45.6% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00AIFS Single: 44.1% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00AIFS Single: 44.1% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.0% · 2026-10-17T04:41:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.8% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.8% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.8% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.8% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.9% · 2026-10-17T04:41:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.1% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.1% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.1% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.1% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.1% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00IFS HRES: 34.4% · 2026-10-17T04:41:33+00:00IFS HRES: 34.4% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00IFS HRES: 34.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00IFS HRES: 34.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00IFS HRES: 22.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:00IFS HRES: 22.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00IFS HRES: 22.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00IFS HRES: 22.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 22.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 22.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS HRES: 22.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 22.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS HRES: 22.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00IFS HRES: 22.0% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-17T04:41:33+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00ICON: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:00ICON: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00ICON: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00ICON: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00ICON: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00ICON: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00ICON: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00ICON: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00ICON: 69.8% · 2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:00ICON: 69.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:33+00:0046.5%57.0%53.9%34.4%63.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:0046.5%57.0%50.0%34.4%63.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:0046.5%57.0%50.0%34.4%63.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:0046.5%57.0%50.0%34.4%63.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:0045.6%57.0%50.0%22.0%69.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:0045.6%57.0%50.0%22.0%69.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:0045.6%57.0%50.0%22.0%69.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:0045.6%57.0%50.0%22.0%69.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:0045.6%57.0%50.0%22.0%69.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:0045.6%27.8%49.1%22.0%69.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:0045.6%27.8%49.1%22.0%69.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:0045.6%27.8%49.1%22.0%69.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:50+00:0044.1%27.8%49.1%22.3%69.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:0044.1%27.8%49.1%22.0%69.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON70%89.2°F7.2°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%86.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 249%85.4°F4.7°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single44%84.7°F5.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble28%84.5°F1.7°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend25%84.0°F2.2°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS HRES22%80.4°F6.6°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261023-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 86°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗