KMIA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

49%

44%

28%

22%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 45.8¢Risks 45.85u

HRESNO 54.2¢Risks 54.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +54.15u · HRES −54.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	76.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	64.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	52.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	54.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	18.1%	—	29.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	43.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	22.1%	—	26.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	45.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	15.1%	42.6%	—	26.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	61.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	41.6%	43.7%	15.3%	23.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	34.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	50.0%	24.9%	29.7%	18.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	22.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	46.2%	26.4%	27.7%	16.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	17.9%	—	15.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	34.5%	20.6%	25.5%	16.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	9.9%	22.4%	—	13.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	12.0%	29.3%	5.8%	14.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	28.8%	33.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	17.2%	23.4%	26.9%	10.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	21.5%	20.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	70%	89.2°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	86.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	85.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	84.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	84.5°F	1.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	80.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261023-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 86°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗