KMIA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

23%

16%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.9¢Risks 14.95u

EPSNO 85.0¢Risks 85.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.05u · EPS −85.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:15+00:00	37.1%	23.5%	34.3%	16.1%	34.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	37.1%	23.5%	34.3%	16.1%	34.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:33+00:00	37.1%	23.5%	34.3%	16.1%	34.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	37.1%	23.5%	34.3%	16.1%	34.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	37.1%	23.5%	34.3%	16.1%	34.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	37.1%	9.1%	35.5%	16.1%	34.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	37.1%	9.1%	35.5%	16.1%	34.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	37.1%	9.1%	35.5%	16.1%	34.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	40.4%	9.1%	35.5%	16.1%	34.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	40.4%	9.1%	35.5%	16.1%	34.4%
2026-10-17T15:24:33+00:00	40.4%	9.1%	35.5%	16.1%	34.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	40.4%	9.1%	35.5%	16.1%	34.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	40.4%	9.1%	35.5%	16.1%	34.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	40.4%	9.1%	37.0%	16.1%	34.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	40.4%	9.1%	37.0%	16.1%	34.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	40.4%	9.1%	37.0%	16.1%	34.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	41.7%	9.1%	37.0%	18.8%	60.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	41.7%	9.1%	37.0%	18.8%	60.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	41.7%	9.1%	37.0%	18.8%	60.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	41.7%	9.1%	37.0%	18.8%	60.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	41.7%	9.1%	37.0%	18.8%	60.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	41.7%	9.1%	32.6%	18.8%	60.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	41.7%	9.1%	32.6%	18.8%	60.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	41.7%	9.1%	32.6%	18.8%	60.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	38.4%	9.1%	32.6%	18.8%	60.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	38.4%	9.1%	32.6%	18.8%	60.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	38.4%	9.1%	32.6%	18.8%	60.3%
2026-10-18T04:13:52+00:00	38.4%	9.1%	32.6%	18.8%	60.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	38.4%	9.1%	35.5%	18.8%	60.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	38.4%	9.1%	35.5%	18.8%	60.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	38.4%	9.1%	35.5%	18.8%	60.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	38.4%	9.1%	35.5%	18.8%	60.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:06+00:00	39.1%	9.1%	35.5%	13.4%	53.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	39.1%	9.1%	35.5%	13.4%	53.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	39.1%	9.1%	35.5%	13.4%	53.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	39.1%	9.1%	35.5%	13.4%	53.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00	39.1%	9.1%	35.5%	13.4%	53.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	39.1%	6.3%	26.8%	13.4%	53.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	39.1%	6.3%	26.8%	13.4%	53.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	39.1%	6.3%	26.8%	13.4%	53.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	33.5%	6.3%	26.7%	13.4%	53.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	33.5%	6.3%	26.7%	13.4%	53.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	33.5%	7.6%	26.7%	13.4%	53.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:54+00:00	33.5%	7.6%	26.7%	13.4%	53.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	33.5%	7.6%	22.0%	13.4%	53.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	33.5%	7.6%	22.0%	13.4%	53.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	33.5%	7.6%	22.0%	13.4%	53.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	33.5%	7.6%	22.0%	13.4%	53.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	15.9%	7.6%	22.0%	4.9%	47.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:15+00:00	15.9%	7.6%	22.0%	4.9%	47.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	15.9%	7.6%	22.0%	4.9%	47.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	15.9%	7.6%	22.0%	4.9%	47.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	15.9%	7.6%	17.9%	4.9%	47.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	15.9%	7.6%	17.9%	4.9%	47.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	15.9%	7.6%	17.9%	4.9%	47.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:32+00:00	17.8%	7.6%	17.9%	4.9%	47.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	17.8%	7.6%	17.9%	4.9%	47.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	17.8%	7.6%	17.9%	4.9%	47.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	17.8%	7.6%	17.9%	4.9%	47.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00	17.8%	7.6%	17.9%	4.9%	47.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	17.8%	7.6%	17.3%	4.9%	47.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	17.8%	7.6%	17.3%	4.9%	47.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	17.8%	7.6%	17.3%	4.9%	47.2%
2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00	22.7%	7.6%	17.3%	6.6%	25.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	22.7%	7.6%	17.3%	6.6%	25.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	22.7%	7.6%	17.3%	6.6%	25.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	22.7%	7.6%	17.3%	6.6%	25.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00	22.7%	7.6%	17.3%	6.6%	25.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00	22.7%	4.8%	15.9%	6.6%	25.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	25%	83.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	25%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	83.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	83.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	78.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	84.5°F	1.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261024-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Miami runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗