KMIA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

23%

16%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.9¢Risks 14.95u

EPSNO 85.0¢Risks 85.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.05u · EPS −85.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	20.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	18.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	34.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	40.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	42.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	38.4%	—	15.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	20.3%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	7.0%	34.2%	—	12.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	19.9%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	35.6%	31.7%	10.2%	11.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	14.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	29.1%	23.7%	9.6%	10.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	12.3%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	21.1%	9.0%	2.3%	7.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	17.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	8.7%	14.9%	11.5%	7.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	1.9%	10.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	25%	83.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	25%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	83.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	83.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	78.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	84.5°F	1.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261024-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Miami runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗