KMIA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

62%

58%

50%

29%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.7¢Risks 60.70u

HRESNO 39.3¢Risks 39.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.30u · HRES −39.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:06+00:00	56.2%	92.6%	60.1%	43.2%	44.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	56.2%	92.6%	60.1%	43.2%	44.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	56.2%	92.6%	60.1%	43.2%	44.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	56.2%	92.6%	60.1%	43.2%	44.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00	56.2%	92.6%	60.1%	43.2%	44.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	56.2%	92.6%	57.0%	43.2%	44.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	56.2%	92.6%	57.0%	43.2%	44.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	56.2%	92.6%	57.0%	43.2%	44.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	48.6%	92.6%	57.0%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	48.6%	92.6%	57.0%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	48.6%	92.6%	57.0%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:54+00:00	48.6%	92.6%	57.0%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	48.6%	92.6%	52.3%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	48.6%	92.6%	52.3%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	48.6%	92.6%	52.3%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	48.6%	92.6%	52.3%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	55.5%	92.6%	52.3%	28.8%	57.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:15+00:00	55.5%	92.6%	52.3%	28.8%	57.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	55.5%	92.6%	52.3%	28.8%	57.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	55.5%	92.6%	52.3%	28.8%	57.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	55.5%	92.6%	50.0%	28.8%	57.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	55.5%	92.6%	50.0%	28.8%	57.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	55.5%	92.6%	50.0%	28.8%	57.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:32+00:00	61.6%	92.6%	50.0%	28.8%	57.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	61.6%	92.6%	50.0%	28.8%	57.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	61.6%	92.6%	50.0%	28.8%	57.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	61.6%	92.6%	50.0%	28.8%	57.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	85.1°F	1.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	84.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	58%	84.5°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	82.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	78.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261025-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 83°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗