KMIA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

62%

58%

50%

29%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.7¢Risks 60.70u

HRESNO 39.3¢Risks 39.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.30u · HRES −39.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	38.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	60.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	73.4%	—	41.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	41.4%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	50.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	60.3%	—	37.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	34.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	15.5%	51.3%	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	48.6%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.1%	32.3%	47.2%	9.3%	33.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	32.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	32.3%	47.8%	26.0%	31.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	45.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	85.1°F	1.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	84.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	58%	84.5°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	82.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	78.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261025-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 83°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗