KMIA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

19%

13%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 16.5¢Risks 16.55u

EPSNO 83.5¢Risks 83.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +83.45u · EPS −83.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:07+00:00	23.8%	9.1%	25.6%	17.2%	26.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	23.8%	9.1%	25.6%	17.2%	26.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	23.8%	9.1%	25.6%	17.2%	26.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	23.8%	9.1%	25.6%	17.2%	26.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:40+00:00	23.8%	9.1%	25.6%	17.2%	26.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	23.8%	9.1%	21.1%	17.2%	26.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	23.8%	9.1%	21.1%	17.2%	26.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	23.8%	9.1%	21.1%	17.2%	26.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	18.3%	9.1%	21.1%	17.2%	26.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:40+00:00	18.3%	9.1%	21.1%	17.2%	26.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	18.3%	9.1%	21.1%	17.2%	26.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:54+00:00	18.3%	9.1%	21.1%	17.2%	26.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	18.3%	9.1%	17.9%	17.2%	26.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	18.3%	9.1%	17.9%	17.2%	26.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	18.3%	9.1%	17.9%	17.2%	26.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	18.3%	9.1%	17.9%	17.2%	26.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	23.3%	9.1%	17.9%	9.1%	38.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:15+00:00	23.3%	9.1%	17.9%	9.1%	38.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	23.3%	9.1%	17.9%	9.1%	38.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	23.3%	9.1%	17.9%	9.1%	38.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	23.3%	9.1%	16.4%	9.1%	38.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	23.3%	9.1%	16.4%	9.1%	38.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	23.3%	9.1%	16.4%	9.1%	38.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:32+00:00	28.3%	9.1%	16.4%	9.1%	38.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	28.3%	9.1%	16.4%	9.1%	38.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	28.3%	9.1%	16.4%	9.1%	38.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	28.3%	9.1%	16.4%	9.1%	38.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:35+00:00	28.3%	9.1%	16.4%	9.1%	38.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00	28.3%	9.1%	19.5%	9.1%	38.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00	28.3%	9.1%	19.5%	9.1%	38.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	28.3%	9.1%	19.5%	9.1%	38.2%
2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00	9.8%	9.1%	19.5%	18.6%	29.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	9.8%	9.1%	19.5%	18.6%	29.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	9.8%	9.1%	19.5%	18.6%	29.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	9.8%	9.1%	19.5%	18.6%	29.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00	9.8%	9.1%	19.5%	18.6%	29.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00	9.8%	3.3%	13.3%	18.6%	29.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	30%	83.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	81.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	18%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	82.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	80.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	84.1°F	1.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261025-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Miami runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗