KMIA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

19%

13%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 16.5¢Risks 16.55u

EPSNO 83.5¢Risks 83.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +83.45u · EPS −83.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	16.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	31.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	44.6%	—	16.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	16.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	21.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	28.9%	—	12.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	10.9%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	3.1%	20.8%	—	9.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	18.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	9.0%	17.1%	1.4%	9.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	8.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	8.4%	16.5%	5.9%	8.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	14.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	30%	83.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	81.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	18%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	82.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	80.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	84.1°F	1.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261025-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Miami runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗