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KMIA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
87%
WN2
58%
AIFS
46%
ICON
46%
HRES
42%
Consensus
69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 64.3¢Risks 64.35u
VS
HRESNO 35.7¢Risks 35.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.65u · HRES −35.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 46.5% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00AIFS Single: 46.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00AIFS Single: 46.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00AIFS Single: 46.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00AIFS Single: 46.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00AIFS Single: 46.5% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.7% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00IFS HRES: 42.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00IFS HRES: 42.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00IFS HRES: 42.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00IFS HRES: 42.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00IFS HRES: 42.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00IFS HRES: 42.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00ICON: 45.6% · 2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:00ICON: 45.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00ICON: 45.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00ICON: 45.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00ICON: 45.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:00ICON: 45.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:0010-19 07:3210-19 09:4910-19 11:20
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:58+00:0046.5%88.0%62.9%42.0%45.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:0046.5%88.0%62.9%42.0%45.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:0046.5%88.0%62.9%42.0%45.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:0046.5%88.0%62.9%42.0%45.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:05+00:0046.5%88.0%62.9%42.0%45.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:47+00:0046.5%86.7%57.8%42.0%45.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble87%84.5°F1.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 258%83.5°F5.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend56%83.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
AIFS Single46%82.0°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON46%81.4°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES42%81.2°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261026-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 83°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗