KMIA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Miami, FLHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

58%

46%

46%

42%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 64.3¢Risks 64.35u

HRESNO 35.7¢Risks 35.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.65u · HRES −35.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	28.8%	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	67.6%	37.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	64.1%	34.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	58.9%	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	36.6%	38.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	57.3%	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	16.7%	41.3%	34.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	50.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	87%	84.5°F	1.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	83.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	82.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	46%	81.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	81.2°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KMIA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMIA-20261026-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Miami high ≥ 83°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗