KMKE / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

81%

74%

73%

42%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.0¢Risks 65.95u

ICONNO 34.1¢Risks 34.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.05u · ICON −34.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:27:31+00:00	30.1%	80.4%	62.7%	74.6%	58.8%
2026-10-10T23:13:31+00:00	30.1%	80.4%	70.1%	74.6%	58.8%
2026-10-10T23:58:38+00:00	30.1%	80.4%	70.1%	74.6%	58.8%
2026-10-11T00:43:45+00:00	30.1%	80.4%	70.1%	74.6%	58.8%
2026-10-11T01:29:00+00:00	40.8%	80.4%	70.1%	74.6%	58.8%
2026-10-11T02:14:13+00:00	40.8%	80.4%	70.1%	74.6%	58.8%
2026-10-11T02:59:19+00:00	40.8%	80.4%	70.1%	74.6%	58.8%
2026-10-11T03:44:56+00:00	40.8%	80.4%	70.1%	74.6%	58.8%
2026-10-11T04:30:45+00:00	40.8%	80.4%	70.1%	74.6%	58.8%
2026-10-11T05:16:03+00:00	40.8%	80.4%	84.5%	74.6%	58.8%
2026-10-11T06:01:16+00:00	40.8%	80.4%	84.5%	74.6%	58.8%
2026-10-11T06:46:26+00:00	40.8%	80.4%	84.5%	74.6%	58.8%
2026-10-11T07:32:06+00:00	8.6%	80.4%	84.5%	84.6%	58.8%
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	8.6%	80.4%	84.5%	84.6%	58.8%
2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00	8.6%	80.4%	84.5%	84.6%	58.8%
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00	8.6%	80.4%	84.5%	84.6%	58.8%
2026-10-11T10:33:50+00:00	8.6%	80.4%	84.5%	84.6%	58.8%
2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00	8.6%	64.7%	42.1%	84.6%	58.8%
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	8.6%	64.7%	42.1%	84.6%	58.8%
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	8.6%	64.7%	42.1%	84.6%	58.8%
2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00	42.5%	64.7%	42.1%	84.6%	58.8%
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00	41.8%	64.5%	42.1%	84.6%	58.8%
2026-10-12T15:27:11+00:00	78.1%	83.0%	93.9%	85.5%	86.9%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	78.1%	83.6%	93.9%	85.5%	86.9%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	78.1%	83.6%	91.5%	85.5%	86.9%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	78.1%	83.6%	91.5%	85.5%	86.9%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	78.1%	83.6%	91.5%	85.5%	86.9%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	78.1%	83.6%	91.5%	85.5%	86.9%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	75.6%	83.6%	91.5%	78.7%	95.9%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	75.6%	83.6%	91.5%	78.7%	95.9%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	75.6%	83.6%	91.5%	78.7%	95.9%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	75.6%	83.6%	91.5%	78.7%	95.9%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	75.6%	83.6%	91.5%	78.7%	95.9%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	75.6%	83.6%	91.5%	78.7%	95.9%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	75.6%	83.6%	91.5%	78.7%	95.9%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	75.6%	83.6%	91.5%	78.7%	95.9%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	78.1%	83.6%	91.5%	78.7%	95.9%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	78.1%	83.6%	91.5%	78.7%	95.9%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	78.1%	83.6%	91.5%	78.7%	95.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:31+00:00	76.9%	81.4%	92.1%	74.1%	50.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	76.9%	81.4%	92.1%	74.1%	50.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	76.9%	81.4%	92.1%	74.1%	50.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	76.9%	81.4%	93.0%	74.1%	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	76.9%	81.4%	93.0%	74.1%	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	76.9%	81.4%	93.0%	74.1%	50.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:01+00:00	74.5%	81.4%	93.0%	74.1%	42.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	74.5%	81.4%	93.0%	74.1%	42.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	74.5%	81.4%	93.0%	74.1%	42.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	74.5%	81.4%	93.0%	74.1%	42.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	74.5%	81.4%	93.0%	73.2%	42.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	74.5%	81.4%	89.8%	73.2%	42.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	74.5%	81.4%	89.8%	73.2%	42.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	74.5%	81.4%	89.8%	73.2%	42.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	74.5%	81.4%	89.8%	73.2%	42.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	74.5%	81.4%	89.8%	73.2%	42.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	74.5%	81.4%	89.8%	73.2%	42.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	74.5%	81.4%	89.8%	73.2%	42.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	58.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0104
National Blend	87%	57.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0164
IFS Ensemble	81%	57.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0346
AIFS Single	74%	57.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0650
IFS HRES	73%	56.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0718
NWS forecast	56%	55.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1901
ICON	42%	53.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3352

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261017-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗