KMKE / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

81%

74%

73%

42%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.0¢Risks 65.95u

ICONNO 34.1¢Risks 34.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.05u · ICON −34.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	50.6%	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	42.8%	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	14.9%	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	8.5%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	78.2%	36.7%	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	34.3%	3.6%	73.1%	—	61.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	1.7%	89.4%	—	52.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	73.0%	8.1%	91.0%	—	57.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	72.8%	—	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	78.8%	16.9%	49.2%	—	68.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	41.9%	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	94.4%	19.5%	88.0%	—	65.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	53.4%	86.3%	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	82.8%	32.2%	73.1%	—	62.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	88.4%	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	74.9%	55.5%	70.3%	—	56.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	70.8%	57.5%	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	75.3%	55.8%	61.5%	—	49.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	72.6%	51.0%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	80.3%	46.9%	66.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	78.0%	46.8%	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	79.4%	48.9%	63.9%	0.6%	55.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	78.6%	41.0%	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	81.7%	44.2%	78.5%	—	59.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	75.6%	51.2%	66.4%	—	0.3%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	65.8%	42.6%	73.4%	24.6%	63.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	59.0%	37.3%	67.5%	—	62.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	58.0%	43.3%	72.7%	23.0%	56.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	63.7%	45.8%	63.7%	—	52.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	64.2%	54.3%	54.3%	35.8%	45.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.2%	61.9%	59.0%	63.3%	—	45.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.0%	62.4%	65.4%	66.8%	40.6%	43.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	78.5%	73.3%	79.7%	—	69.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	58.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0104
National Blend	87%	57.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0164
IFS Ensemble	81%	57.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0346
AIFS Single	74%	57.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0650
IFS HRES	73%	56.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0718
NWS forecast	56%	55.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1901
ICON	42%	53.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3352

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261017-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗