KMKE / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

60%

56%

53%

22%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.4¢Risks 50.35u

ICONNO 49.6¢Risks 49.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.65u · ICON −49.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:54+00:00	64.3%	69.1%	81.1%	67.4%	91.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	64.3%	69.1%	81.1%	67.4%	91.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	64.3%	69.1%	81.1%	67.4%	91.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	64.3%	69.1%	81.1%	67.4%	91.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	64.3%	69.1%	81.1%	67.4%	91.8%
2026-10-13T08:03:28+00:00	47.4%	69.1%	81.1%	63.3%	79.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	47.4%	69.1%	81.1%	63.3%	79.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	47.4%	69.1%	81.1%	63.3%	79.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	47.4%	69.1%	81.1%	63.3%	79.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	47.4%	61.6%	63.6%	63.3%	79.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:37+00:00	47.4%	61.6%	63.6%	63.3%	79.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	47.4%	61.6%	63.6%	63.3%	79.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	47.4%	61.6%	63.6%	63.3%	79.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	44.8%	61.5%	63.7%	63.3%	79.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	44.8%	65.0%	63.7%	63.3%	79.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:28+00:00	44.8%	65.0%	63.7%	63.3%	79.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	44.8%	65.0%	63.7%	63.3%	79.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	44.8%	65.0%	67.6%	63.3%	79.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	44.8%	65.0%	67.6%	63.3%	79.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	44.8%	65.0%	67.6%	63.3%	79.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	43.1%	65.0%	67.6%	63.3%	69.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	43.1%	65.0%	67.6%	63.3%	69.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	43.1%	65.0%	67.6%	63.3%	69.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	43.1%	65.0%	67.6%	63.3%	69.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	43.1%	65.0%	67.6%	52.4%	69.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	43.1%	65.0%	65.7%	52.4%	69.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	43.1%	65.0%	65.7%	52.4%	69.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	43.1%	65.0%	65.7%	52.4%	69.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	38.0%	65.0%	65.7%	52.4%	69.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	38.0%	65.0%	65.7%	52.4%	69.8%
2026-10-14T02:59:47+00:00	38.0%	65.0%	65.7%	52.4%	69.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:29+00:00	38.0%	65.0%	65.7%	52.4%	69.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	38.0%	65.0%	65.7%	52.4%	69.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	38.0%	65.0%	65.7%	52.4%	69.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	38.0%	65.0%	65.7%	52.4%	69.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:16+00:00	38.0%	65.0%	65.7%	52.4%	69.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	43.5%	65.0%	65.7%	52.4%	64.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:36+00:00	43.5%	65.0%	65.7%	52.4%	64.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	43.5%	65.0%	65.7%	52.4%	64.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	43.5%	65.0%	65.7%	52.4%	64.7%
2026-10-14T10:33:02+00:00	43.5%	65.0%	65.7%	52.7%	64.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	43.5%	54.0%	62.8%	52.7%	64.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	43.5%	54.0%	62.8%	52.7%	64.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	43.5%	54.0%	62.8%	52.7%	64.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	48.1%	54.0%	62.8%	52.7%	64.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	48.1%	54.0%	62.8%	52.7%	64.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:17+00:00	48.1%	55.3%	62.8%	52.7%	64.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	48.1%	55.3%	62.8%	52.7%	64.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	48.1%	55.3%	62.8%	52.7%	64.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	48.1%	55.3%	62.8%	52.7%	64.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	48.1%	55.3%	62.8%	52.7%	64.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	48.1%	55.3%	62.8%	52.7%	64.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	55.6%	55.3%	62.8%	46.4%	69.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	55.6%	55.3%	62.8%	46.4%	69.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	55.6%	55.3%	62.8%	46.4%	69.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	55.6%	55.3%	62.8%	46.4%	69.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	55.6%	55.3%	62.8%	46.4%	69.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	55.6%	55.1%	68.3%	46.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	55.6%	55.1%	68.3%	46.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	55.6%	55.1%	68.3%	46.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	56.5%	55.1%	68.3%	46.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	56.5%	55.1%	68.3%	46.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	56.5%	55.1%	68.3%	46.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T04:02:10+00:00	56.5%	55.1%	68.3%	46.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	56.5%	55.1%	68.3%	46.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	56.5%	55.1%	67.2%	46.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	56.5%	55.1%	67.2%	46.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	56.5%	55.1%	67.2%	46.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:43+00:00	52.9%	55.1%	67.2%	51.0%	57.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	52.9%	55.1%	67.2%	51.0%	57.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	52.9%	55.1%	67.2%	51.0%	57.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	52.9%	55.1%	67.2%	51.0%	57.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	52.9%	55.1%	67.2%	51.0%	57.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:19+00:00	52.9%	55.1%	66.3%	51.0%	57.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	52.9%	58.9%	66.3%	51.0%	57.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00	52.9%	58.9%	66.3%	51.0%	57.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	57.8%	58.7%	66.3%	51.0%	57.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	57.8%	58.7%	66.3%	51.0%	57.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00	57.8%	56.2%	66.3%	51.0%	57.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:00+00:00	57.8%	56.2%	66.3%	51.0%	57.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	57.8%	56.2%	73.0%	51.0%	57.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	57.8%	56.2%	73.0%	51.0%	57.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	57.8%	56.2%	73.0%	51.0%	57.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	57.8%	56.2%	73.0%	51.0%	57.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	54.9%	56.2%	73.0%	53.9%	58.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	54.9%	56.2%	73.0%	53.9%	58.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	54.9%	56.2%	73.0%	53.9%	58.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	54.9%	56.2%	73.0%	53.9%	58.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	54.9%	56.2%	71.9%	53.9%	58.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	54.9%	56.2%	71.9%	53.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	54.9%	56.2%	71.9%	53.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	51.0%	56.2%	71.9%	53.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	51.0%	56.2%	71.9%	53.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00	51.0%	56.2%	71.9%	53.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	51.0%	56.2%	71.9%	53.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T04:24:08+00:00	51.0%	56.2%	71.9%	53.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	51.0%	56.2%	68.6%	53.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	51.0%	56.2%	68.6%	53.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	51.0%	56.2%	68.6%	53.9%	58.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	55.0%	56.2%	68.6%	53.9%	28.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	55.0%	56.2%	68.6%	53.9%	28.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	55.0%	56.2%	68.6%	53.9%	28.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	55.0%	56.2%	68.6%	53.9%	28.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	55.0%	56.2%	68.6%	53.9%	28.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:17+00:00	55.0%	62.5%	76.5%	53.9%	28.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	55.0%	62.5%	76.5%	53.9%	28.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	55.0%	62.5%	76.5%	53.9%	28.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:30+00:00	59.0%	62.5%	76.5%	54.3%	28.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:46+00:00	59.0%	62.5%	76.5%	54.3%	28.6%
2026-10-17T04:41:41+00:00	56.0%	60.1%	72.0%	53.2%	22.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	56.0%	60.1%	78.5%	53.2%	22.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	56.0%	60.1%	78.5%	53.2%	22.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	56.0%	60.1%	78.5%	53.2%	22.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	78%	58.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0462
IFS Ensemble	60%	57.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1592
NWS forecast	59%	57.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1648
National Blend	59%	57.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1697
AIFS Single	56%	57.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1936
IFS HRES	53%	56.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2190
ICON	22%	53.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.6053

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261017-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗