KMKE / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

60%

56%

53%

22%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.4¢Risks 50.35u

ICONNO 49.6¢Risks 49.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.65u · ICON −49.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	45.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	39.0%	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	31.3%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	8.8%	—	—	44.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	4.5%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	67.0%	24.9%	—	—	50.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	22.4%	1.6%	60.4%	—	47.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.6%	81.1%	—	37.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	59.1%	3.8%	83.1%	—	42.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	65.5%	8.7%	33.7%	—	53.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	27.0%	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	88.0%	10.1%	77.5%	—	49.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	74.7%	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	69.3%	18.4%	57.0%	—	45.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	77.1%	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	58.2%	37.3%	52.8%	—	38.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	52.8%	38.8%	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	57.7%	36.6%	42.3%	—	30.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	54.0%	31.7%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	63.1%	27.6%	45.9%	—	30.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	59.5%	27.1%	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	60.8%	28.2%	42.4%	0.1%	34.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	59.0%	21.4%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	62.6%	23.3%	58.1%	—	36.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	53.6%	28.3%	42.8%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	41.3%	20.8%	50.0%	9.5%	38.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	33.7%	16.6%	42.3%	—	37.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	31.9%	20.0%	47.3%	7.9%	30.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	36.3%	21.1%	36.3%	—	26.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	35.8%	26.8%	26.8%	13.8%	20.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	32.5%	29.8%	33.8%	—	19.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	31.7%	34.6%	36.1%	15.2%	17.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	48.4%	41.8%	50.0%	—	37.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	78%	58.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0462
IFS Ensemble	60%	57.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1592
NWS forecast	59%	57.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1648
National Blend	59%	57.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1697
AIFS Single	56%	57.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1936
IFS HRES	53%	56.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2190
ICON	22%	53.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.6053

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261017-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 57°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗