KMKE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

94%

82%

79%

73%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 83.9¢Risks 83.95u

EPSNO 16.1¢Risks 16.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +16.05u · EPS −16.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:06+00:00	57.1%	71.8%	95.5%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00	57.1%	71.8%	95.5%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00	57.1%	71.8%	95.5%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:16+00:00	57.1%	71.8%	95.5%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:50+00:00	57.1%	71.8%	95.5%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00	57.1%	70.6%	88.0%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	57.1%	70.6%	88.0%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:27+00:00	57.1%	70.6%	88.0%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:45+00:00	90.5%	70.6%	88.0%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:13+00:00	90.4%	70.6%	88.0%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:40+00:00	90.4%	73.0%	88.0%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:19+00:00	90.4%	73.0%	88.0%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:26+00:00	90.4%	73.0%	88.0%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:01+00:00	90.4%	73.0%	89.9%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:11+00:00	90.4%	73.0%	89.9%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:19+00:00	90.4%	73.0%	89.9%	94.3%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:31+00:00	90.7%	73.0%	89.9%	81.6%	79.5%
2026-10-11T20:28:40+00:00	90.7%	73.0%	89.9%	81.6%	79.5%
2026-10-11T21:13:52+00:00	90.7%	73.0%	89.9%	81.6%	79.5%
2026-10-11T21:58:59+00:00	90.7%	73.0%	89.9%	81.6%	79.5%
2026-10-11T22:44:14+00:00	90.7%	73.0%	89.9%	81.6%	79.5%
2026-10-11T23:29:32+00:00	90.7%	73.0%	94.9%	81.6%	79.4%
2026-10-12T00:14:44+00:00	90.7%	73.0%	94.9%	81.6%	79.4%
2026-10-12T01:00:13+00:00	90.7%	73.0%	94.9%	81.6%	79.4%
2026-10-12T01:45:21+00:00	93.6%	73.0%	94.9%	81.6%	79.4%
2026-10-12T02:30:29+00:00	93.6%	73.0%	94.9%	81.6%	79.4%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	93.6%	73.0%	94.9%	81.6%	79.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	64.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0026
AIFS Single	94%	65.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0041
IFS HRES	82%	62.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0339
ICON	79%	64.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0424
IFS Ensemble	73%	59.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0729
National Blend	53%	57.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2209

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261018-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗