KMKE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

94%

82%

79%

73%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 83.9¢Risks 83.95u

EPSNO 16.1¢Risks 16.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +16.05u · EPS −16.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	57.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	1.5%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	6.7%	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	4.0%	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	3.9%	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	73.7%	38.2%	58.4%	—	79.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	76.8%	67.0%	86.1%	—	79.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	85.8%	69.1%	93.0%	—	85.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	95.5%	75.8%	92.8%	—	86.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	86.1%	35.6%	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	87.1%	96.2%	88.0%	88.0%	—	84.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	83.3%	88.5%	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	93.2%	90.6%	88.2%	—	79.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	92.8%	90.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	87.6%	93.0%	88.1%	82.2%	—	82.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	92.6%	85.2%	—	—	69.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	93.5%	84.7%	88.9%	—	85.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	94.0%	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	93.9%	83.0%	92.6%	—	88.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	90.4%	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	88.6%	90.6%	77.8%	92.3%	—	91.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	87.1%	73.3%	0.8%	—	91.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	92.0%	84.0%	79.3%	94.3%	—	92.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	92.6%	86.8%	82.5%	91.8%	—	93.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	92.9%	84.1%	88.2%	93.3%	79.2%	92.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	85.7%	93.6%	95.4%	—	92.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	84.3%	94.3%	93.9%	80.0%	90.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	93.3%	93.3%	95.0%	95.3%	—	92.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	95.6%	97.3%	95.6%	96.8%	94.1%	96.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	98.0%	92.5%	94.0%	—	90.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	98.0%	95.2%	96.3%	95.6%	96.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	53.3%	99.8%	97.9%	99.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	64.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0026
AIFS Single	94%	65.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0041
IFS HRES	82%	62.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0339
ICON	79%	64.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0424
IFS Ensemble	73%	59.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0729
National Blend	53%	57.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2209

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261018-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗