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KMKE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
94%
WN2
93%
HRES
81%
ICON
78%
EPS
68%
Consensus
82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 81.1¢Risks 81.10u
VS
EPSNO 18.9¢Risks 18.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +18.90u · EPS −18.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T04:01:24+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00AIFS Single: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:00AIFS Single: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00AIFS Single: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00AIFS Single: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00AIFS Single: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00AIFS Single: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00AIFS Single: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00AIFS Single: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-10-12T04:01:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.5% · 2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.3% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.1% · 2026-10-12T04:01:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.1% · 2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.9% · 2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.9% · 2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.9% · 2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.9% · 2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.9% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.9% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.9% · 2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.9% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.5% · 2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.5% · 2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.5% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.5% · 2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.4% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-12T04:01:24+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00IFS HRES: 72.0% · 2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00IFS HRES: 81.2% · 2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:00IFS HRES: 81.2% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00IFS HRES: 81.2% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00IFS HRES: 81.2% · 2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00IFS HRES: 81.2% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00IFS HRES: 81.2% · 2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00IFS HRES: 81.2% · 2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00IFS HRES: 81.2% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00IFS HRES: 81.2% · 2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00IFS HRES: 81.2% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00ICON: 73.2% · 2026-10-12T04:01:24+00:00ICON: 73.2% · 2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:00ICON: 73.2% · 2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:00ICON: 73.2% · 2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:00ICON: 73.2% · 2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00ICON: 78.4% · 2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00ICON: 78.3% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:0010-12 04:0110-12 09:1910-12 14:41
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T04:01:24+00:0087.8%58.1%89.1%72.0%73.2%
2026-10-12T04:47:15+00:0087.8%58.1%89.1%72.0%73.2%
2026-10-12T05:32:21+00:0087.8%58.1%90.9%72.0%73.2%
2026-10-12T06:17:28+00:0087.8%58.1%90.9%72.0%73.2%
2026-10-12T07:02:34+00:0087.8%58.1%90.9%72.0%73.2%
2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:0087.5%58.1%90.9%81.2%78.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:0087.5%58.1%90.9%81.2%78.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:0087.5%58.1%90.9%81.2%78.4%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:0087.5%58.1%90.9%81.2%78.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:0087.5%58.1%90.9%81.2%78.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:31+00:0087.5%58.1%93.5%81.2%78.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:0087.5%68.5%93.5%81.2%78.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:0087.5%68.5%93.5%81.2%78.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:0093.9%68.5%93.5%81.2%78.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:0093.9%68.3%93.4%81.2%78.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single94%66.7°F5.3°F2026-10-12 06:000.0037
WeatherNext 293%65.4°F4.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.0044
IFS HRES81%64.3°F6.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.0353
ICON78%64.0°F7.0°F2026-10-12 00:000.0471
IFS Ensemble68%60.4°F4.0°F2026-10-12 00:000.1005
National Blend63%60.0°F4.4°F2026-10-12 06:000.1354
NWS forecast53%59.0°F5.8°F2026-10-12 02:000.2172

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗