KMKE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

93%

81%

78%

68%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 81.1¢Risks 81.10u

EPSNO 18.9¢Risks 18.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +18.90u · EPS −18.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	0.7%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	3.5%	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	1.9%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	1.8%	—	—	63.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	61.1%	25.7%	44.4%	—	67.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	68.3%	64.3%	52.9%	76.3%	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	80.5%	75.5%	54.6%	86.2%	—	74.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	90.3%	61.8%	85.5%	—	75.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	21.8%	76.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	91.3%	77.5%	77.5%	—	72.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	70.4%	78.0%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	85.4%	81.0%	77.2%	—	64.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	73.6%	84.5%	80.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	84.5%	76.3%	67.8%	—	67.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	79.7%	83.5%	71.6%	—	—	50.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	84.7%	70.4%	76.8%	—	72.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	85.4%	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	76.5%	84.9%	67.0%	82.4%	—	75.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	75.5%	78.0%	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	77.8%	58.7%	81.0%	—	78.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	71.4%	52.2%	0.1%	—	78.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	65.9%	59.2%	84.0%	—	81.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	80.1%	69.6%	63.0%	78.4%	—	80.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	64.6%	71.3%	80.9%	57.4%	80.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	78.1%	66.3%	80.9%	85.0%	—	78.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	63.2%	81.8%	80.9%	56.7%	73.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	78.9%	78.9%	82.7%	83.6%	—	77.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	88.5%	83.7%	87.0%	79.8%	85.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	90.1%	75.2%	78.7%	—	70.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	89.8%	80.8%	83.9%	81.9%	83.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	98.1%	88.5%	95.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	66.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0037
WeatherNext 2	93%	65.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0044
IFS HRES	81%	64.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0353
ICON	78%	64.0°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0471
IFS Ensemble	68%	60.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1005
National Blend	63%	60.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.1354
NWS forecast	53%	59.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2172

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗