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KMKE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
67%
AIFS
58%
HRES
36%
EPS
30%
ICON
7%
Consensus
27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 37.3¢Risks 37.30u
VS
ICONNO 62.7¢Risks 62.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +62.70u · ICON −62.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-17T04:41:41+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:28+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.4% · 2026-10-17T04:41:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.4% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.4% · 2026-10-17T07:44:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.9% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.9% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.9% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 29.9% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T04:41:41+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:28+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00IFS HRES: 36.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-10-17T04:41:41+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00ICON: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T07:44:28+00:00ICON: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00ICON: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00ICON: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00ICON: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00ICON: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00ICON: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00ICON: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00ICON: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00ICON: 7.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:41+00:0061.6%32.4%69.7%40.4%13.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:0061.6%32.4%69.7%40.4%13.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:0061.6%32.4%69.7%40.4%13.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:0061.6%32.4%69.7%40.4%13.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:28+00:0060.0%32.4%69.7%36.3%7.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:0060.0%32.4%69.7%36.3%7.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:0060.0%32.4%69.7%36.3%7.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:0060.0%32.4%69.7%36.3%7.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:0060.0%32.4%69.7%36.3%7.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:0060.0%29.9%67.2%36.3%7.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:0060.0%29.9%67.2%36.3%7.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:0060.0%29.9%67.2%36.3%7.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:0058.0%29.9%67.2%36.3%7.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:0058.0%30.3%67.2%36.3%7.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 267%64.8°F2.9°F2026-10-17 00:000.1076
AIFS Single58%64.3°F3.9°F2026-10-17 06:000.1764
NWS forecast56%64.0°F3.1°F2026-10-17 03:000.1901
IFS HRES36%62.2°F3.7°F2026-10-17 00:000.4058
IFS Ensemble30%61.9°F3.1°F2026-10-17 00:000.4858
ICON7%58.4°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:000.8575
National Blend6%60.0°F2.2°F2026-10-17 06:000.8911

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗