KMKE / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

58%

36%

30%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 37.3¢Risks 37.30u

ICONNO 62.7¢Risks 62.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +62.70u · ICON −62.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	0.2%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	27.5%	6.3%	15.3%	—	33.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	29.1%	19.9%	42.0%	—	31.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	39.4%	20.0%	55.3%	—	38.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	61.8%	24.2%	52.4%	—	38.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	3.6%	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	62.3%	38.5%	38.5%	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	38.2%	43.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.8%	48.2%	41.3%	36.3%	—	23.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	45.5%	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	44.5%	33.0%	24.4%	—	24.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	41.5%	26.9%	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	42.3%	24.7%	31.3%	—	26.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	42.0%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.5%	39.8%	19.7%	35.9%	—	27.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	28.8%	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	27.3%	12.5%	31.1%	—	28.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	19.8%	8.7%	0.0%	—	26.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	14.7%	11.0%	32.0%	—	28.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	16.0%	11.9%	23.4%	—	26.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	11.8%	15.9%	24.6%	8.5%	23.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	11.5%	22.8%	28.0%	—	20.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	8.9%	22.0%	21.0%	6.5%	14.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	17.3%	21.1%	22.1%	—	16.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	26.8%	20.2%	24.5%	16.3%	22.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	27.2%	11.2%	13.6%	—	8.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	23.8%	13.4%	16.1%	14.2%	16.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	50.0%	19.2%	33.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	67%	64.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1076
AIFS Single	58%	64.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1764
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901
IFS HRES	36%	62.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.4058
IFS Ensemble	30%	61.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.4858
ICON	7%	58.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.8575
National Blend	6%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.8911

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗