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KMKE / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
92%
EPS
76%
ICON
64%
HRES
62%
Consensus
89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 80.3¢Risks 80.30u
VS
HRESNO 19.7¢Risks 19.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.70u · HRES −19.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-17T04:41:43+00:00AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:28+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00AIFS Single: 91.9% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00AIFS Single: 92.0% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.2% · 2026-10-17T04:41:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.4% · 2026-10-17T04:41:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.1% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.1% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.1% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.1% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.1% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-17T04:41:43+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-17T07:44:28+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00IFS HRES: 61.5% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00ICON: 71.0% · 2026-10-17T04:41:43+00:00ICON: 71.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00ICON: 71.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00ICON: 71.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00ICON: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:28+00:00ICON: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00ICON: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00ICON: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00ICON: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00ICON: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00ICON: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00ICON: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00ICON: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00ICON: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:43+00:0092.0%79.2%98.4%60.6%71.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:0092.0%79.2%98.8%60.6%71.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:0092.0%79.2%98.8%60.6%71.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:0092.0%79.2%98.8%60.6%71.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:28+00:0093.0%79.2%98.8%61.5%64.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:0093.0%79.2%98.8%61.5%64.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:0093.0%79.2%98.8%61.5%64.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:0093.0%79.2%98.8%61.5%64.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:0093.0%79.2%98.8%61.5%64.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:0093.0%76.2%99.1%61.5%64.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:0093.0%76.2%99.1%61.5%64.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:0093.0%76.2%99.1%61.5%64.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:0091.9%76.2%99.1%61.5%64.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:0092.0%75.8%99.1%61.5%64.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%68.8°F3.1°F2026-10-17 00:000.0001
AIFS Single92%67.2°F4.1°F2026-10-17 06:000.0064
National Blend92%63.0°F1.1°F2026-10-17 06:000.0067
IFS Ensemble76%63.6°F3.0°F2026-10-17 00:000.0586
ICON64%62.8°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:000.1274
IFS HRES62%62.7°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:000.1482
NWS forecast56%62.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 03:000.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗