KMKE / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

92%

76%

64%

62%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.3¢Risks 80.30u

HRESNO 19.7¢Risks 19.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.70u · HRES −19.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	56.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	68.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	64.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	39.1%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	28.8%	67.0%	—	—	61.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	81.1%	63.1%	42.3%	—	63.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	65.0%	21.0%	61.6%	—	60.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.8%	81.1%	67.7%	53.8%	—	57.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	77.0%	57.9%	57.1%	—	54.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	16.3%	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	72.8%	76.8%	55.0%	47.5%	—	58.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	74.0%	65.0%	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	78.6%	64.6%	66.2%	—	63.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.9%	58.9%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	56.4%	59.1%	56.4%	—	63.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	64.8%	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	67.0%	57.7%	66.1%	—	67.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	70.1%	54.0%	55.0%	—	—	68.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	65.1%	58.2%	77.3%	—	69.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	72.1%	60.5%	—	—	70.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	66.9%	65.9%	77.8%	1.5%	66.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	69.5%	75.1%	0.3%	—	65.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	70.0%	75.8%	60.4%	61.5%	61.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	83.3%	75.6%	56.0%	—	63.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	80.9%	89.4%	77.3%	68.0%	2.6%	66.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	88.5%	70.9%	59.0%	—	55.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	86.6%	68.1%	56.7%	69.3%	64.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	95.3%	66.2%	65.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	84.6%	97.5%	66.9%	73.2%	65.5%	76.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	71.5%	98.2%	61.9%	61.9%	—	64.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	97.4%	68.3%	51.6%	54.7%	85.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	99.4%	80.8%	86.9%	—	96.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	68.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0001
AIFS Single	92%	67.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0064
National Blend	92%	63.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0067
IFS Ensemble	76%	63.6°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0586
ICON	64%	62.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1274
IFS HRES	62%	62.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1482
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗