KMKE / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 09:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

18%

16%

15%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 10.7¢Risks 10.65u

EPSNO 89.3¢Risks 89.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +89.35u · EPS −89.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:21+00:00	5.0%	1.5%	26.1%	6.3%	16.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	5.0%	1.5%	26.1%	6.3%	16.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	5.0%	1.5%	26.1%	6.3%	16.0%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	5.0%	1.5%	26.1%	6.3%	16.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:10+00:00	5.0%	1.5%	26.1%	6.3%	16.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:32+00:00	5.0%	1.5%	11.7%	6.3%	16.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	16.3%	0.5%	11.7%	6.3%	16.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00	16.4%	0.5%	11.8%	6.3%	16.1%
2026-10-12T15:27:13+00:00	16.4%	0.5%	11.8%	6.3%	16.1%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	16.4%	0.4%	11.8%	6.3%	16.1%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	16.4%	0.4%	12.6%	6.3%	16.1%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	16.4%	0.4%	12.6%	6.3%	16.1%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	16.4%	0.4%	12.6%	6.3%	16.1%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	16.4%	0.4%	12.6%	6.3%	16.1%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	20.1%	0.4%	11.8%	2.1%	44.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	20.1%	0.4%	11.8%	2.1%	44.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	20.1%	0.4%	11.8%	2.1%	44.0%
2026-10-13T04:15:55+00:00	20.1%	0.4%	11.8%	2.1%	44.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	20.1%	0.4%	14.3%	2.1%	44.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	20.1%	0.4%	14.3%	2.1%	44.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	20.1%	0.4%	14.3%	2.1%	44.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	20.1%	0.4%	14.3%	2.1%	44.0%
2026-10-13T08:03:28+00:00	15.9%	0.4%	14.3%	14.3%	22.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	15.9%	0.4%	14.3%	14.3%	22.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	15.9%	0.4%	14.3%	14.3%	22.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	15.9%	0.4%	14.3%	14.3%	22.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	18.3%	0.1%	12.8%	14.3%	22.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	18.3%	0.1%	12.8%	14.3%	22.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	14.5%	0.1%	16.3%	14.6%	34.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	14.5%	0.1%	16.3%	14.6%	34.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	14.5%	0.1%	16.3%	14.6%	34.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	14.5%	0.1%	16.3%	14.6%	34.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:16+00:00	14.5%	0.1%	16.3%	14.6%	34.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	17.6%	0.1%	16.3%	14.6%	21.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:36+00:00	17.6%	0.1%	16.3%	14.6%	21.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	17.6%	0.1%	16.3%	14.6%	21.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	17.6%	0.1%	16.3%	14.6%	21.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	21%	67.8°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0449
AIFS Single	18%	67.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0310
WeatherNext 2	16%	68.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0266
IFS HRES	15%	65.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0213
NWS forecast	5%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0024
National Blend	<1%	64.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	<1%	63.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗