KMKE / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

97%

48%

44%

39%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.7¢Risks 68.65u

ICONNO 31.4¢Risks 31.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.35u · ICON −31.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00	86.6%	58.5%	91.0%	35.2%	80.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:00+00:00	86.6%	58.5%	91.0%	35.2%	80.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	86.6%	58.5%	91.0%	35.2%	80.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	86.6%	58.5%	91.0%	35.2%	80.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	86.6%	58.5%	91.0%	35.2%	80.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	86.6%	58.5%	91.0%	35.2%	80.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	84.3%	58.5%	91.0%	38.4%	71.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	84.3%	58.5%	91.0%	38.4%	71.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	84.3%	58.5%	91.0%	38.4%	71.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	84.3%	58.5%	91.0%	38.4%	71.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	84.3%	58.5%	93.1%	38.4%	71.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	84.3%	58.5%	93.1%	38.4%	71.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	84.3%	58.5%	93.1%	38.4%	71.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	85.3%	58.5%	93.1%	38.4%	71.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	85.3%	58.5%	93.1%	38.4%	71.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00	85.3%	58.5%	93.1%	38.4%	71.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	85.3%	58.5%	93.1%	38.4%	71.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:31+00:00	84.8%	48.5%	93.7%	49.2%	76.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	84.8%	48.5%	93.7%	49.2%	76.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	84.8%	48.5%	93.7%	49.2%	76.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	84.8%	48.5%	93.4%	49.2%	76.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	84.8%	48.5%	93.4%	49.2%	76.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	84.8%	48.5%	93.4%	49.2%	76.4%
2026-10-16T19:37:01+00:00	86.3%	48.5%	93.4%	49.2%	64.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	86.3%	48.5%	93.4%	49.2%	64.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	86.3%	48.5%	93.4%	49.2%	64.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	86.3%	48.5%	93.4%	49.2%	64.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	86.3%	48.5%	93.4%	54.0%	64.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	86.3%	48.5%	94.7%	54.0%	64.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	86.3%	48.5%	94.7%	54.0%	64.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	86.3%	48.5%	94.7%	54.0%	64.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	86.3%	48.5%	94.7%	54.0%	64.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	86.3%	48.5%	94.7%	54.0%	64.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	86.3%	48.5%	94.7%	54.0%	64.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	86.3%	48.5%	94.7%	54.0%	64.4%
2026-10-17T04:41:43+00:00	86.3%	48.5%	94.7%	54.0%	64.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	86.3%	48.5%	94.9%	54.0%	64.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	86.3%	48.5%	94.9%	54.0%	64.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	86.3%	48.5%	94.9%	54.0%	64.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:28+00:00	86.9%	48.5%	94.9%	43.8%	45.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	86.9%	48.5%	94.9%	43.8%	45.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00	86.9%	48.5%	94.9%	43.8%	45.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	86.9%	48.5%	94.9%	43.8%	45.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	86.9%	48.5%	94.9%	43.8%	45.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	86.9%	48.6%	95.2%	43.8%	45.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	86.9%	48.6%	95.2%	43.8%	45.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	86.9%	48.6%	95.2%	43.8%	45.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	83.7%	48.6%	95.2%	43.8%	45.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	83.7%	48.6%	95.2%	43.8%	45.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:00+00:00	81.3%	44.5%	92.3%	46.4%	43.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	81.3%	44.5%	93.9%	46.4%	43.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	81.3%	44.5%	93.9%	46.4%	43.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	81.3%	44.5%	93.9%	46.4%	43.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	81.3%	44.5%	93.9%	46.4%	43.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:17+00:00	83.8%	44.5%	93.9%	41.3%	41.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	83.8%	44.5%	93.9%	41.3%	41.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	83.8%	44.5%	93.9%	41.3%	41.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	83.8%	44.5%	93.9%	41.3%	41.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00	83.8%	35.9%	94.3%	41.3%	41.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	83.8%	35.9%	94.3%	41.3%	41.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	83.8%	35.9%	94.3%	41.3%	41.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	83.8%	35.9%	94.3%	41.3%	41.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	75.5%	36.1%	94.3%	41.3%	41.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:30+00:00	72.9%	46.2%	96.3%	53.2%	47.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	72.9%	46.2%	96.3%	53.2%	47.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	72.9%	46.2%	96.3%	53.2%	47.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:30+00:00	72.9%	46.2%	94.7%	53.2%	47.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:38+00:00	72.9%	46.2%	94.7%	53.2%	47.7%
2026-10-19T18:59:59+00:00	72.9%	46.2%	94.7%	53.2%	47.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:29+00:00	75.4%	46.2%	94.7%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:38+00:00	75.4%	46.2%	94.7%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:52+00:00	75.4%	46.2%	94.7%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	75.4%	46.2%	94.7%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	75.4%	46.2%	94.7%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:28+00:00	75.4%	47.5%	94.3%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:51+00:00	75.4%	47.5%	94.3%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	75.4%	47.5%	94.3%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	87.4%	47.5%	94.3%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:57+00:00	87.4%	47.5%	94.3%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	87.4%	47.5%	94.3%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-10-20T04:04:36+00:00	87.4%	47.5%	94.3%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	87.4%	47.5%	94.3%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:28+00:00	87.4%	47.5%	98.5%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:40+00:00	87.4%	47.5%	98.5%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	87.4%	47.5%	98.5%	43.6%	46.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:55+00:00	96.6%	47.5%	98.5%	43.6%	38.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	96.6%	47.5%	98.5%	43.6%	38.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	96.6%	47.5%	98.5%	43.6%	38.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	96.6%	47.5%	98.5%	43.6%	38.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	69.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	97%	69.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	63.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	62.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	39%	62.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	63.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗