KMKE / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

97%

48%

44%

39%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.7¢Risks 68.65u

ICONNO 31.4¢Risks 31.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.35u · ICON −31.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	62.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	—	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	40.7%	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	37.8%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	18.0%	38.7%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	71.4%	49.3%	25.7%	—	59.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.7%	83.9%	27.2%	52.9%	—	55.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	57.6%	49.2%	34.4%	—	43.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	68.4%	36.7%	29.5%	—	47.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.9%	9.5%	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	55.8%	20.7%	34.5%	—	43.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	60.2%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	65.4%	24.1%	47.4%	—	37.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	57.1%	19.0%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	50.9%	24.4%	54.6%	—	44.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	50.0%	26.9%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	38.5%	32.1%	43.2%	—	40.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	46.0%	31.7%	—	—	41.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	35.9%	27.6%	26.8%	0.8%	34.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	38.5%	24.5%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	44.5%	23.8%	19.8%	—	31.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	47.8%	25.8%	0.5%	—	27.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	40.8%	21.5%	12.7%	0.3%	31.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	57.2%	21.6%	19.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	43.8%	62.3%	22.7%	23.6%	33.1%	42.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	37.3%	67.5%	20.9%	25.9%	—	37.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	61.9%	19.1%	28.4%	21.0%	42.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	74.7%	21.1%	40.3%	—	52.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	66.9%	22.2%	40.0%	35.8%	64.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	19.2%	38.1%	—	35.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	69.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	97%	69.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	63.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	62.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	39%	62.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	63.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗