KMKE / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

86%

75%

54%

51%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.0¢Risks 69.05u

EPSNO 30.9¢Risks 30.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.95u · EPS −30.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:28+00:00	89.4%	57.1%	81.5%	43.1%	42.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	89.4%	57.1%	81.5%	43.1%	42.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	89.4%	57.1%	81.5%	43.1%	42.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	89.4%	57.1%	81.5%	43.1%	42.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	89.4%	47.7%	84.8%	43.1%	42.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:37+00:00	89.4%	47.7%	84.8%	43.1%	42.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	89.4%	47.7%	84.8%	43.1%	42.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	89.4%	47.7%	84.8%	43.1%	42.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	84.0%	47.7%	84.7%	43.1%	42.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	84.0%	51.1%	84.7%	43.1%	42.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:28+00:00	84.0%	51.1%	84.7%	43.1%	42.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	84.0%	51.1%	84.7%	43.1%	42.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	84.0%	51.1%	87.0%	43.1%	42.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	84.0%	51.1%	87.0%	43.1%	42.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	84.0%	51.1%	87.0%	43.1%	42.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	85.3%	51.1%	87.0%	43.1%	75.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	85.3%	51.1%	87.0%	43.1%	75.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	85.3%	51.1%	87.0%	43.1%	75.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	85.3%	51.1%	87.0%	43.1%	75.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	85.3%	51.1%	87.0%	54.4%	75.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	85.3%	51.1%	87.0%	54.4%	75.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	85.3%	51.1%	87.0%	54.4%	75.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	85.3%	51.1%	87.0%	54.4%	75.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	85.7%	51.1%	87.0%	54.4%	75.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	85.7%	51.1%	87.0%	54.4%	75.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	70.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	70.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	75%	71.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	65.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	65.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	64.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261020-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 65°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗