KMKE / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

86%

75%

54%

51%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.0¢Risks 69.05u

EPSNO 30.9¢Risks 30.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.95u · EPS −30.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	60.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	34.7%	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	31.8%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	13.9%	32.4%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	65.1%	42.3%	20.4%	—	52.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	79.0%	21.5%	45.6%	—	47.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	50.0%	41.7%	27.7%	—	35.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	61.0%	29.5%	23.0%	—	39.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	6.5%	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.0%	47.5%	15.2%	27.2%	—	35.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	51.7%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	57.0%	17.8%	38.8%	—	29.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	48.2%	13.5%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	41.8%	17.8%	45.4%	—	35.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	40.6%	19.6%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.9%	29.6%	24.0%	33.9%	—	31.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	36.3%	23.4%	—	—	31.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	26.8%	19.7%	19.0%	0.4%	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	28.8%	16.9%	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	34.1%	16.2%	13.1%	—	22.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	36.7%	17.5%	0.2%	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	30.0%	14.0%	7.6%	0.1%	21.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	33.6%	45.2%	13.9%	11.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	50.0%	14.4%	15.1%	22.7%	30.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.9%	55.1%	12.8%	16.6%	—	25.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	48.7%	11.3%	18.2%	12.7%	29.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	62.3%	12.4%	27.6%	—	39.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	52.9%	13.0%	26.8%	23.4%	50.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	10.5%	24.8%	—	22.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	70.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	70.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	75%	71.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	65.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	65.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	64.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261020-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 65°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗