KMKE / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

66%

30%

25%

20%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.1¢Risks 50.05u

EPSNO 49.9¢Risks 49.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.95u · EPS −49.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:47+00:00	81.3%	40.1%	82.2%	48.1%	71.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:29+00:00	81.3%	40.1%	82.2%	48.1%	71.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	81.3%	40.1%	82.2%	48.1%	71.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	81.3%	40.1%	82.2%	48.1%	71.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	81.3%	40.1%	82.2%	48.1%	71.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:16+00:00	81.3%	40.1%	82.2%	48.1%	71.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	84.6%	40.1%	82.2%	48.1%	84.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:36+00:00	84.6%	40.1%	82.2%	48.1%	84.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	84.6%	40.1%	82.2%	48.1%	84.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	84.6%	40.1%	82.2%	48.1%	84.0%
2026-10-14T10:33:03+00:00	84.6%	40.1%	82.2%	32.9%	84.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	84.6%	31.7%	83.7%	32.9%	84.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	84.6%	31.7%	83.7%	32.9%	84.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	84.6%	31.7%	83.7%	32.9%	84.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	76.9%	31.7%	83.7%	32.9%	84.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	77.1%	32.0%	83.3%	33.0%	83.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:17+00:00	77.1%	32.9%	83.3%	33.0%	83.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	77.1%	32.9%	83.3%	33.0%	83.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	77.1%	32.9%	83.3%	33.0%	83.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	77.1%	32.9%	78.0%	33.0%	83.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	77.1%	32.9%	78.0%	33.0%	83.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	77.1%	32.9%	78.0%	33.0%	83.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	70.5%	32.9%	78.0%	33.5%	64.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	70.5%	32.9%	78.0%	33.5%	64.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	70.5%	32.9%	78.0%	33.5%	64.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	70.5%	32.9%	78.0%	33.5%	64.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	70.5%	32.9%	78.0%	33.5%	64.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	70.5%	32.9%	74.0%	33.5%	64.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	70.5%	32.9%	74.0%	33.5%	64.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	70.5%	32.9%	74.0%	33.5%	64.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	71.1%	32.9%	74.0%	33.5%	64.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	71.1%	32.9%	74.0%	33.5%	64.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	71.1%	32.9%	74.0%	33.5%	64.4%
2026-10-15T04:02:10+00:00	71.1%	32.9%	74.0%	33.5%	64.4%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	71.1%	32.9%	74.0%	33.5%	64.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	71.1%	32.9%	74.7%	33.5%	64.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	71.1%	32.9%	74.7%	33.5%	64.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	71.1%	32.9%	74.7%	33.5%	64.4%
2026-10-15T07:49:43+00:00	77.2%	32.9%	74.7%	23.3%	69.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	77.2%	32.9%	74.7%	23.3%	69.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	77.2%	32.9%	74.7%	23.3%	69.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	77.2%	32.9%	74.7%	23.3%	69.3%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	77.2%	32.9%	74.7%	23.3%	69.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:19+00:00	77.2%	32.9%	80.3%	23.3%	69.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	77.2%	33.4%	80.3%	23.3%	69.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00	77.2%	33.4%	80.3%	23.3%	69.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	75.9%	33.4%	80.3%	23.4%	69.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	75.9%	33.4%	80.3%	23.4%	69.8%
2026-10-16T04:24:08+00:00	74.1%	30.9%	84.1%	26.1%	59.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	74.1%	30.9%	81.6%	26.1%	59.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	74.1%	30.9%	81.6%	26.1%	59.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	74.1%	30.9%	81.6%	26.1%	59.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	72.2%	30.9%	81.6%	26.1%	62.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	72.2%	30.9%	81.6%	26.1%	62.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	72.2%	30.9%	81.6%	26.1%	62.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	72.2%	30.9%	81.6%	26.1%	62.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	72.2%	30.9%	81.6%	26.1%	62.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:17+00:00	72.2%	23.2%	84.0%	26.1%	62.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	72.2%	23.2%	84.0%	26.1%	62.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	72.2%	23.2%	84.0%	26.1%	62.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:30+00:00	72.2%	23.2%	84.0%	33.7%	62.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:46+00:00	72.2%	23.2%	84.0%	33.7%	62.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:40+00:00	69.6%	20.4%	85.7%	27.3%	26.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	69.6%	20.4%	85.7%	27.3%	26.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	69.6%	20.4%	83.6%	27.3%	26.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	69.6%	20.4%	83.6%	27.3%	26.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	69.6%	20.4%	83.6%	27.3%	26.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	69.6%	20.4%	83.6%	27.3%	26.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	61.9%	20.4%	83.6%	29.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	61.9%	20.4%	83.6%	29.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	61.9%	20.4%	83.6%	29.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	61.9%	20.4%	83.6%	29.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	61.9%	20.4%	79.7%	29.6%	24.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	61.9%	20.4%	79.7%	29.6%	24.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	61.9%	20.4%	79.7%	29.6%	24.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	61.9%	20.4%	79.7%	29.6%	24.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	66.3%	20.4%	79.7%	29.6%	24.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	66.3%	20.4%	79.7%	29.6%	24.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	66.3%	20.4%	79.7%	29.6%	24.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	68.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	67.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	65.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	63.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	25%	62.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	63.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗