KMKE / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

66%

30%

25%

20%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.1¢Risks 50.05u

EPSNO 49.9¢Risks 49.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.95u · EPS −49.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	47.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	29.1%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	26.2%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	10.5%	26.5%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	58.4%	35.6%	15.8%	—	45.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	73.4%	16.5%	38.5%	—	40.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	42.4%	34.4%	21.6%	—	28.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	53.2%	23.0%	17.4%	—	32.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	4.3%	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.7%	39.3%	10.8%	20.7%	—	27.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	43.2%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	48.2%	12.7%	30.7%	—	22.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	39.3%	9.2%	—	—	22.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	33.0%	12.4%	36.4%	—	27.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	31.8%	13.7%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	21.8%	17.1%	25.5%	—	23.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	27.4%	16.4%	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.5%	19.0%	13.4%	12.8%	0.2%	17.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	20.5%	11.1%	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	24.7%	10.4%	8.1%	—	14.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	26.7%	11.2%	0.1%	—	12.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	20.7%	8.5%	4.2%	0.0%	14.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	33.6%	8.2%	7.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.7%	37.7%	8.5%	8.9%	14.4%	20.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	42.3%	7.2%	9.8%	—	16.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	35.6%	6.1%	10.7%	7.0%	19.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	48.6%	6.7%	17.3%	—	26.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	38.6%	6.8%	16.3%	13.8%	35.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	5.1%	14.4%	—	12.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	68.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	67.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	65.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	63.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	25%	62.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	63.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗