KMKE / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

63%

43%

41%

30%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.0¢Risks 56.95u

EPSNO 43.0¢Risks 43.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.05u · EPS −43.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:10+00:00	70.3%	37.3%	73.2%	34.1%	67.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	70.3%	37.3%	73.2%	34.1%	67.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	70.3%	37.3%	75.1%	34.1%	67.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	70.3%	37.3%	75.1%	34.1%	67.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	70.3%	37.3%	75.1%	34.1%	67.8%
2026-10-15T07:49:43+00:00	78.2%	37.3%	75.1%	30.3%	70.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	78.2%	37.3%	75.1%	30.3%	70.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	78.2%	37.3%	75.1%	30.3%	70.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	78.2%	37.3%	75.1%	30.3%	70.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	78.2%	37.3%	75.1%	30.3%	70.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:19+00:00	78.2%	37.3%	82.1%	30.3%	70.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	78.2%	23.3%	82.1%	30.3%	70.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00	78.2%	23.3%	82.1%	30.3%	70.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	67.9%	23.3%	82.1%	30.3%	70.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	67.9%	23.3%	82.1%	30.3%	70.4%
2026-10-17T15:24:40+00:00	74.3%	35.9%	88.6%	52.4%	26.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	74.3%	35.9%	88.6%	52.4%	26.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	74.3%	35.9%	90.1%	52.4%	26.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	74.3%	35.9%	90.1%	52.4%	26.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	74.3%	35.9%	90.1%	52.4%	26.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	74.3%	35.9%	90.1%	52.4%	26.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	66.1%	35.9%	90.1%	41.3%	39.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	66.1%	35.9%	90.1%	41.3%	39.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	66.1%	35.9%	90.1%	41.3%	39.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	66.1%	35.9%	90.1%	41.3%	39.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	66.1%	35.9%	81.2%	41.3%	39.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	66.1%	35.9%	81.2%	41.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	66.1%	35.9%	81.2%	41.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	66.1%	35.9%	81.2%	41.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	69.9%	35.9%	81.2%	41.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	69.9%	35.9%	81.2%	41.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	69.9%	35.9%	81.2%	41.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T04:14:00+00:00	69.9%	35.9%	81.2%	41.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	69.9%	35.9%	85.2%	41.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	69.9%	35.9%	85.2%	41.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	69.9%	35.9%	85.2%	41.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	69.9%	35.9%	85.2%	41.3%	39.5%
2026-10-18T08:01:17+00:00	71.3%	35.9%	85.2%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	71.3%	35.9%	85.2%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	71.3%	35.9%	85.2%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	71.3%	35.9%	85.2%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:45+00:00	71.3%	29.7%	83.6%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00	71.3%	29.7%	83.6%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	71.3%	29.7%	83.6%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	71.3%	29.7%	83.6%	42.9%	41.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	62.8%	30.3%	83.6%	42.9%	41.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	70.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	68.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	66.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	41%	66.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	65.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗