KMKE / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

63%

43%

41%

30%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.0¢Risks 56.95u

EPSNO 43.0¢Risks 43.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.05u · EPS −43.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	6.7%	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	11.3%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	28.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	16.8%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	9.0%	39.3%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	50.0%	36.9%	3.8%	—	28.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	51.5%	9.3%	17.5%	—	33.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	60.6%	6.5%	34.4%	—	33.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	54.8%	15.9%	35.2%	—	26.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	0.8%	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	41.7%	10.1%	41.7%	—	42.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	12.8%	14.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.9%	15.1%	25.5%	43.0%	—	42.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	27.9%	31.0%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	24.4%	28.9%	22.3%	—	35.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	34.3%	29.2%	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	34.8%	32.1%	27.9%	—	38.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	39.1%	42.0%	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	34.0%	34.0%	9.4%	—	35.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	53.2%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	58.7%	26.4%	17.6%	—	43.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	63.3%	29.6%	0.0%	—	37.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	60.4%	27.0%	33.1%	0.0%	45.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	71.7%	28.3%	27.3%	—	53.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	70.2%	27.6%	38.9%	41.3%	63.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	24.8%	47.4%	—	59.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	70.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	68.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	66.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	41%	66.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	65.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗