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KMKE / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
98%
AIFS
94%
ICON
92%
HRES
76%
EPS
70%
Consensus
89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 84.1¢Risks 84.10u
VS
EPSNO 15.9¢Risks 15.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +15.90u · EPS −15.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 97.2% · 2026-10-15T11:39:19+00:00AIFS Single: 97.2% · 2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00AIFS Single: 97.2% · 2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-10-15T16:20:00+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00AIFS Single: 95.6% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00AIFS Single: 94.8% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00AIFS Single: 94.8% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00AIFS Single: 94.3% · 2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00AIFS Single: 94.3% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00AIFS Single: 94.3% · 2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00AIFS Single: 94.3% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-15T11:39:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.6% · 2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.6% · 2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.6% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.6% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-15T16:20:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-15T11:39:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-15T16:20:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.9% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.2% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-15T11:39:19+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-15T16:20:00+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00IFS HRES: 76.4% · 2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00IFS HRES: 76.4% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00IFS HRES: 76.4% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00IFS HRES: 76.4% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00IFS HRES: 76.4% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00IFS HRES: 76.3% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00IFS HRES: 76.3% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00IFS HRES: 76.3% · 2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00IFS HRES: 76.3% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00IFS HRES: 76.3% · 2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00IFS HRES: 76.3% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-15T11:39:19+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-15T16:20:00+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00ICON: 48.4% · 2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00ICON: 91.5% · 2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00ICON: 91.5% · 2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00ICON: 91.5% · 2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00ICON: 91.5% · 2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00ICON: 91.5% · 2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00ICON: 91.5% · 2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00ICON: 91.5% · 2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00ICON: 91.5% · 2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00ICON: 91.5% · 2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00ICON: 91.5% · 2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:00ICON: 91.5% · 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:0010-15 11:3910-15 20:0610-16 03:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T11:39:19+00:0097.2%80.9%97.1%48.1%48.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:0097.2%71.6%97.1%48.1%48.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:0097.2%71.6%97.1%48.1%48.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:0095.6%71.6%96.9%48.1%48.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:0095.6%71.6%96.9%48.1%48.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:10+00:0095.6%70.0%96.9%48.1%48.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:00+00:0095.6%70.0%96.9%48.1%48.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:0095.6%70.0%96.9%48.1%48.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:0095.6%70.0%96.9%48.1%48.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:0095.6%70.0%96.9%48.1%48.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:0095.6%70.0%96.9%48.1%48.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:0094.9%70.0%96.9%76.4%91.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:0094.9%70.0%96.9%76.4%91.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:0094.9%70.0%96.9%76.4%91.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:0094.9%70.0%96.9%76.4%91.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:0094.9%70.0%98.2%76.4%91.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:0094.8%70.0%98.2%76.3%91.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:0094.8%70.0%98.2%76.3%91.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:0094.3%70.0%98.2%76.3%91.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:0094.3%70.0%98.2%76.3%91.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:31+00:0094.3%70.0%98.2%76.3%91.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:0094.3%70.0%98.2%76.3%91.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 298%75.1°F5.1°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single94%73.5°F5.7°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
ICON92%78.1°F9.9°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS HRES76%69.1°F6.4°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble70%66.7°F4.2°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend53%65.0°F6.6°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261022-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 65°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗