KMKE / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

94%

92%

76%

70%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 84.1¢Risks 84.10u

EPSNO 15.9¢Risks 15.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +15.90u · EPS −15.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.4%	—	22.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	—	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	29.6%	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	45.5%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	19.8%	57.4%	—	—	61.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	84.7%	94.4%	69.5%	23.5%	—	61.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	49.3%	15.2%	33.7%	—	57.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	55.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	75.5%	53.0%	73.0%	46.9%	—	64.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	48.4%	41.3%	49.2%	—	43.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	79.3%	10.2%	42.7%	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	70.7%	43.4%	61.5%	37.7%	—	46.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	59.3%	66.6%	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	77.9%	51.7%	67.8%	47.4%	—	46.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	42.9%	24.2%	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	50.9%	58.2%	35.6%	—	42.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	53.8%	60.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	69.6%	67.0%	17.1%	—	49.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	70.1%	69.2%	69.2%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	68.8%	70.6%	28.5%	—	34.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	86.2%	72.1%	68.4%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	87.5%	51.1%	43.5%	44.5%	47.8%	42.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	—	26.7%	19.0%	—	35.7%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	24.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	75.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	73.5°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	92%	78.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	69.1°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	70%	66.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	65.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261022-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 65°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗