KMKE / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

74%

40%

33%

25%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.8¢Risks 56.75u

EPSNO 43.2¢Risks 43.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.25u · EPS −43.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:08+00:00	85.3%	42.4%	93.3%	59.8%	85.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	85.3%	42.4%	92.5%	59.8%	85.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	85.3%	42.4%	92.5%	59.8%	85.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	85.3%	42.4%	92.5%	59.8%	85.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	83.7%	42.4%	92.5%	59.8%	52.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	83.7%	42.4%	92.5%	59.8%	52.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	83.7%	42.4%	92.5%	59.8%	52.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	83.7%	42.4%	92.5%	59.8%	52.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	83.7%	42.4%	92.5%	59.8%	52.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:17+00:00	83.7%	28.5%	90.8%	59.8%	52.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	83.7%	28.5%	90.8%	59.8%	52.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	83.7%	28.5%	90.8%	59.8%	52.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:30+00:00	83.3%	28.5%	90.8%	32.5%	52.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:46+00:00	83.2%	28.6%	90.8%	32.5%	53.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:31+00:00	83.2%	27.2%	90.8%	32.5%	53.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	83.2%	27.1%	90.8%	32.5%	53.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	83.2%	27.1%	90.8%	32.5%	53.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	83.2%	27.1%	89.3%	32.5%	53.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	83.2%	27.1%	89.3%	32.5%	53.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	83.2%	27.1%	89.3%	32.5%	53.4%
2026-10-16T19:37:01+00:00	78.7%	27.1%	89.3%	32.5%	56.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:28+00:00	78.7%	27.1%	89.3%	32.5%	56.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	78.7%	27.1%	89.3%	32.5%	56.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	78.7%	27.1%	89.3%	32.5%	56.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	78.7%	27.1%	89.3%	40.4%	56.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:30+00:00	78.7%	27.1%	80.4%	40.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	78.7%	27.1%	80.4%	40.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	78.7%	27.1%	80.4%	40.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	77.0%	27.1%	80.4%	40.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	77.0%	27.1%	80.4%	40.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	77.0%	27.1%	80.4%	40.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	77.0%	27.1%	80.4%	40.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T04:41:43+00:00	77.0%	27.1%	80.4%	40.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	77.0%	27.1%	79.2%	40.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	77.0%	27.1%	79.2%	40.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	77.0%	27.1%	79.2%	40.4%	56.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:28+00:00	81.8%	27.1%	79.2%	33.9%	46.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	81.8%	27.1%	79.2%	33.9%	46.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:37+00:00	81.8%	27.1%	79.2%	33.9%	46.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	81.8%	27.1%	79.2%	33.9%	46.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	81.8%	27.1%	79.2%	33.9%	46.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	81.8%	36.3%	72.0%	33.9%	46.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	81.8%	36.3%	72.0%	33.9%	46.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	81.8%	36.3%	72.0%	33.9%	46.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	81.2%	36.3%	72.0%	33.9%	46.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	81.3%	36.3%	72.0%	33.9%	46.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00	71.4%	24.9%	83.3%	18.9%	41.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00	71.4%	24.9%	83.3%	18.9%	41.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	71.4%	24.9%	83.3%	18.9%	41.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	71.4%	24.9%	81.9%	18.9%	41.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:26+00:00	71.4%	24.9%	81.9%	18.9%	41.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	71.4%	24.9%	81.9%	18.9%	41.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	73.6%	24.9%	81.9%	33.0%	40.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	73.6%	24.9%	81.9%	33.0%	40.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	73.6%	24.9%	81.9%	33.0%	40.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	73.6%	24.9%	81.9%	33.0%	40.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	73.6%	24.9%	81.9%	33.0%	40.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	73.6%	24.9%	88.6%	33.0%	40.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	73.6%	24.9%	88.6%	33.0%	40.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	73.6%	24.9%	88.6%	33.0%	40.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	73.6%	24.9%	88.6%	33.0%	40.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	73.6%	24.9%	88.6%	33.0%	40.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	73.6%	24.9%	88.6%	33.0%	40.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	73.6%	24.9%	88.6%	33.0%	40.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	72.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	70.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	40%	66.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	65.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	65.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗