KMKE / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Milwaukee, WIHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

74%

40%

33%

25%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.8¢Risks 56.75u

EPSNO 43.2¢Risks 43.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.25u · EPS −43.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	15.7%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	27.3%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	76.7%	8.8%	37.4%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	85.5%	49.3%	10.5%	—	40.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	48.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	28.5%	5.7%	16.5%	—	35.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	30.9%	51.5%	25.8%	—	41.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	26.1%	20.6%	26.8%	—	22.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	3.0%	21.2%	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.7%	21.3%	36.9%	17.3%	—	23.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	34.2%	41.5%	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	26.9%	42.2%	23.4%	—	22.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	43.7%	19.6%	8.5%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	25.1%	31.4%	14.4%	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	26.9%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	41.3%	38.5%	4.6%	—	22.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	40.1%	40.1%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	38.8%	40.8%	9.0%	—	12.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	41.6%	37.5%	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	21.3%	16.2%	16.9%	19.0%	15.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	7.1%	4.2%	—	11.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	72.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	70.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	40%	66.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	65.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	65.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMKE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMKE-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Milwaukee high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗